Author Archives: notwallygm

Now, we worry

 Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox reacts to a strike during his seventh inning at bat against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 12, 2014 in the Bronx borough of New York City.

Last week, I published a post titled “What, we worry?” and urged Red Sox fans not to worry about the team’s subpar performance right now because, generally, the season is young and anything could happen. With that said, it’s difficult not to think that the forthcoming news about Dustin Pedroia‘s wrist injury has the weight of the season riding on it.

One characteristic of Red Sox teams under Ben Cherington’s tenure as General Manager is depth throughout the 40 man roster. Last season, at shortstop and third base, Cherington gave the team four viable MLB-ready options: Stephen Drew, Will Middlebrooks, Jose Iglesias, and Xander Bogaerts. Many other clubs would throttle puppies to have that much depth on the left side of the infield; and, as it turned out, the Red Sox needed all of it to survive the season and the playoffs.

But roster depth has limits. Despite how well Cherington has shaped Red Sox rosters to give the team depth, the impending news on Pedroia’s injury feels like the team is approaching a breaking point. The loss of Shane Victorino has been covered well by Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley Jr., two pleasant surprises for the Red Sox this early in the season. But Will Middlebrooks going on the disabled list was too much for the roster depth to swallow, prompting the team to acquire Ryan Roberts.

There are concerns about Koji Uehara‘s health, but for now, Edward Mujica has the closer position covered.

In the meantime, production at left field has become a point of concern with Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava underperforming. In Nava’s case, “underperforming” doesn’t accurately describe his .140 batting average. Nava was hitting .360 with a .485 OBP at this point last season, so his drop off now is simply unacceptable.

This is everything Cherington has had to worry about before Pedroia was scratched from the lineup last night and sent to Boston to get an MRI on his left wrist.

Pedroia is irreplaceable. When healthy or, as we witnessed last year, playing through a minor injury, Pedroia is a top of the order hitter who gets on base and drives in runs – and he’s a vacuum cleaner at second base, taking away hits with diving stops. Hopefully, Pedroia’s MRI comes back negative and he’ll only need 2-3 weeks rest before returning to the lineup because there’s not much the Red Sox can do to recover from such a blow. No team, whether or not they were constructed by Ben Cherington, has the roster depth to withstand the loss of such a player.

The best plan I can think of if Pedroia is lost for a significant amount of time is to sign Stephen Drew, move Bogaerts to third base, and shift Middlebrooks to second base when he returns. Middlebrooks has great range but a lackluster arm, and with the shorter throw from second to first he’ll be a better defender. Drew won’t replace Pedroia at the plate, but he’s a superior fielder with more range than Bogaerts. And moving Bogaerts to third base has him covering less ground on the field while keeping his bat in the lineup. This plan would help keep the Red Sox in contention until Pedroia returns – provided that the team doesn’t suffer anymore injuries to key players.

Depending on the outcome of Pedroia’s MRI, the Red Sox could be looking at a situation where 1/3 of their starting lineup is out for over a month at the same time, and it’s tough for any team to recover from that. The only bright spot in this scenario is that these injuries are happening in April, so Red Sox staying in contention is dependent on giving other teams five months to develop injury problems of their own. You hate to depend upon luck, especially when the Red Sox have been so unlucky thus far in 2014, but sometimes that all you have.

And we’ll be pretty lucky if Pedroia’s injury isn’t serious, since even he can’t play through this one.

photo credit: getty images

Tarred and Feathered

Michael Pineda Pine tar on hand

There’s much ado regarding the brown substance Michael Pineda had on his pitching hand during the Red Sox v. Yankees game last night. Pineda claims it was dirt because his palms sweat more than a [insert your own joke about teenage shenanigans here]. Pineda maintains this claim despite his sweaty palms problem miraculous clearing up after the 4th inning when his hands were clean. Everyone else thinks the gunk on Pineda’s hands was pine tar: you, me, the Boston media, the national media, your mom, my mom, Pineda’s mom, your dog’s mom, etc.

Does it matter? Yes, but not in the way that you’re thinking. Buchholz, who’s no stranger to accusations of cheating, has the best take on the Pineda controversy when he was asked if it was an issue:

“No, especially on cold windy nights, it’s tough to get a grip on the baseball,” Buchholz said. “I had that instance last year in Toronto, people said I had stuff all over my body you can use — rosin, water, the whole sunscreen stuff, whatever. I’d rather have a grip on the baseball and semi-know where it’s going [than] have no grip and get somebody hurt.”

A pitcher not having a firm grip on the ball is the crux of the matter, and perhaps this is why were not reading about complaints from Red Sox hitters regarding Pineda. (Besides Jonny Gomes, who had some negative comments. But Gomes is like Mikey and he hates everything.) Hitters place their lives in the pitcher’s hands every time they’re at the plate, and they seem content knowing that pitchers are doing everything possible to make sure an errant fastball isn’t flying towards their face because they couldn’t grip the baseball. In some cases, pitchers will use pine tar – which, technically, is cheating. But you don’t see the hitters complaining.

As for whether Pineda using pine tar improved his performance against the Red Sox lineup, some will say yes and point out that Pineda no-hit the Red Sox through four innings. But this is the same Red Sox lineup who, a day before, got one-hit through five innings by the Rangers’ Robbie Ross. Ross isn’t a star, and he wouldn’t even be in the Rangers’ starting rotation if that team hadn’t suffered some early injuries to its starters. Ross also walked five Red Sox hitters, and the one hit was a weak squibber that didn’t make it past the infield grass.

The Red Sox hit into seemingly countless double plays during their series with the Rangers, and they struck out 12 times against Yankees’ pitchers last night. Whether Robbie Ross is pitching clean or Michael Pineda is pitching dirty, the Red Sox are not hitting, period. They’re falling behind in counts and swinging at breaking balls, which results in either a swing and miss or a ground out. Instead of being able to foul off these pitches, work a count to 3-2 and force the pitcher to throw a fastball, the Red Sox are swinging into outs. That’s the issue, not pine tar.

 

What, we worry?

 Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after grounding out with men on base against the Texas Rangers in the 7th inning at Fenway Park on April 8, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

Reading too much into how a baseball team performs at the beginning of the season is a small sin.

This crime is not on the level of overreach as, for example, national sports media airing the claims of a tweet by a Cardinals’ A-ball pitcher that Jon Lester cheated in game 1 of the World Series; after the Cardinals made Little League-esque gaffes like Pete Kozma booting a double play ball in the first inning, and neither Yadier Molina or Adam Wainwright being able to catch a lazy pop-up in the second inning. Journalists who reported on that story should have been watching the game instead of Twitter. But reading too much into how a team performs this early in the season would, I confess, make me guilty of the sin of overreach.

It’s not that the Red Sox don’t have problems worthy of complaining about. The search for a leadoff hitter leaves a hole at the top of the order that’s roughly the size of Bartolo Colon‘s waist. The legion of men left on base is large enough to topple a weak despotic government. And watching Red Sox hitters take the philosophy of working pitch counts too far by not swinging at strike 3 has been frustrating.

But let’s not think about this too much.

What matters is that the Red Sox are only 4-5, despite how they’ve played. For the rest of April, the only above .500 team the Red Sox will face is the Toronto Blue Jays – and how long will they be above .500? And the only team which made the Red Sox look silly was the Milwaukee Brewers, who just happen to be the hottest team in baseball right now – how long will their streak continue?

So the Red Sox have a shot to be above .500 by the end of the month. With the outfield running on fumes until Victorino returns, and Middlebrooks‘ injury weakening the lineup, that’s a pretty good situation to be in. And I’ll enjoy watching one pleasant surprise of 2014, Jackie Bradley Jr, make me eat every word I wrote about him a couple weeks ago while the Red Sox stay competitive throughout April and, hopefully, have a healthier team in May and for the rest of the season.

It’s better that the Red Sox experience the problems they’re having now than in August.

photo credit: getty images

Who’s on third?

Ryan Roberts (L), Will Middlebrooks (C), Garin Cecchini (R)

The Red Sox made an interesting move when they signed journeyman infielder Ryan Roberts to play third base until Will Middlebrooks returns. The Roberts contract cost the Red Sox a million dollars, which isn’t a lot of money in baseball terms, but Middlebrooks ostensibly only has a calf strain. The recovery period for this injury should be a couple weeks of rest, a few at bats in Pawtucket, then a return to Boston by the end of the month.

So why would the Red Sox spend a million on a journeyman who, in this situation, is essentially a one month rental? Why not bring up Garin Cecchini, the 22 year old phenom who’s killing it in Pawtucket right now, for a cup of coffee in The Show?

Here are two possible answers to that question. First is that Cecchini isn’t ready: he’s only played 5 games of AAA ball after being in Portland last year, and he hit under .200 in Spring Training. Second answer regards Cecchini’s options: if the Red Sox keep him in the minors for 20 games in 2014, then they extend their control of his contract out to 2020. Given the gargantuan sums of cash being spent on free agents right now, spending $1 million now on a journeyman to ensure that you keep Cecchini under an extra year of control makes sense.

Still, it’s feasible that Cecchini could have been called up for a month to fill in for Middlebrooks, then sent back down to Pawtucket to get his 20 games in so the Red Sox can keep their 2020 option on him. Why shell out a million to a journeyman to do this job?

What makes the Ryan Roberts signing interesting is what it means for Middlebrooks. The Red Sox either know that Middlebrooks’ injury is worse than what’s being reported, or they are so disappointed with his performance that they are sending Middlebrooks a message: “Third base isn’t yours, you need to earn it.”

Middlebrooks has considerable power potential at the plate, but his MLB career thus far has been a disappointment. He’s made three trips to the DL in three seasons, and his stat line of .227 BA, .271 OBP with 17 HR last year would barely cut it if he was a catcher, but it’s unacceptable for a third baseman. If Middlebrooks provided a great glove then his troubles at the plate would be more palatable, but he made 10 errors in only 92 games last season.

For the Red Sox, it’s at the point where having a third baseman who can field well and have an OBP around .300 – .320 is more valuable than seeing if Middlebrooks can ever mature and become the ballplayer everyone wants to see.  Middlebrooks has shown flashes of greatness, but the Red Sox just spent a million on a player who could serve as the bridge to Cecchini. The team isn’t bleeping around anymore: It’s do or die time for Middlebrooks.

A few Red Sox trouble spots to start the season

It’s easy to be negative in Boston, the town where we still reflexively react to the frustration of waiting 86 years to win a World Series despite winning in the past decade. So let me preface this post by saying that the Apocalypse is not nigh: it’s only the first week of the baseball season, Detroit still has a perfect record, Arizona is an unspeakable 1-7, the Devil Rays are in first place, and these are all examples of things that won’t last.

And the Red Sox have shown flashes of brilliance, on and off the field. Henry, Lucchino and Werner surprising David Ortiz with a World Series MVP ring was a stroke of genius because the currency Ortiz recognizes is respect. In baseball, respect is most often measured in contract dollars, so Ortiz occasionally complains that he’s not getting paid at the same level of his peers. By giving him the World Series MVP ring, Red Sox ownership usurped currency as a measure of respect and gave Ortiz the gift of ultimate respect. That ring is worth more than a $100 million contract to Ortiz, and it probably cost less than $500,000, so the gift was a shrewd business move.

So, with that said, let me revert to my normal negative Bostonian self and dwell on the bad news.

Clay Buchholz – After years of waiting for Buchholz to reach his potential and put together a season as an Cy Young contender with 200+ innings pitched, the Red Sox have resigned themselves to assuming that Buchholz will go on the DL at least once a season and made him the fifth starter. It’s a shame that Buchholz has only been able to put it together for 10-15 starts a season because, in those games, he looks everything like the Cy Young-esque pitcher we thought he would become. Getting those types of starts from the fifth starter would, at least, demonstrate the strength of the Red Sox starting rotation.

Where Buchholz is concerned, though, you always have to fear when (not if, but when) he’ll go on the DL. Under that pretense, his start against Milwaukee on April 5 was worrying because his fastball just wasn’t fast. Most of his fastballs were 88-89 mph (a couple reached 90 mph), which left little difference between his fastball and 85-86 mph change-up. And both pitches had little movement on them; they were left up in the zone and Brewers hitters hammered them.

Buchholz couldn’t throw his curveball effectively either, which usually doesn’t concern me because a curveball is tough for any pitcher to throw in cold weather (aces like Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright both had trouble snapping off curveballs last October), but since Buchholz’s other pitches weren’t working, now it could be a cause for concern; if only because he doesn’t have a third pitch to rely on when his fastball isn’t humming.

But Buchholz’s loss of velocity is my biggest concern, because it could mean he’s holding back and that’s indicative of an injury. The Red Sox have enough depth to cover for an injured starter – Brandon Workman has looked great so far – but I’ll take Buchholz at 100% over Workman; or Jon Lester, or John Lackey, or mostly any other pitcher, quite honestly. Without a healthy Buchholz, the Red Sox once strong rotation now has just another fifth starter. Even if that starter is Workman or one of the prospects in Pawtucket, it will still led to more losses than when Buchholz is pitching.

Will Middlebrooks – A day after hitting a solo home run and looking like he was getting hot at the plate, Middlebrooks was scratched from the lineup on April 5 because of a leg cramp; and wasn’t even available to pinch hit in what became an extra innings loss where the Red Sox really could have used his bat. He’s missing from the April 6 lineup as well, and reports say he’s getting an MRI on his right calf.  Middlebrooks was placed on the 15 day DL about point-five seconds after I wrote that part I crossed out. Sigh.

Unlike depth at other positions, Red Sox don’t have much depth at third base until Garin Cecchini is MLB-ready. The team lucked out last year with Jose Iglesias, after Middlebrooks worked himself into a well deserved demotion to Pawtucket.

Middlebrooks hit .194 in April 2013, and just .138 in June 2013 before being sent down – and he was making a throwing error to first base every 5-6 games, it seemed. Jose Iglesias served has surprise depth the Red Sox didn’t realize that they had, and the fact that Wil Myers won the Rookie of the Year award over Iglesias was a crime. Iglesias at least should have been awarded some sort of combo Gold Glove for SS/3B or something. Not to digress, but why doesn’t a utility infielder Gold Glove exist?

Regardless, Iglesias is on the DL now, so even if the Red Sox kept him, they would still have to depend on Middlebrooks because the other options are Brock Holt and Brandon Synder. But can the Red Sox depend on Middlebrooks? He has yet to play a full MLB season, and this year is Will’s third chance to get it together and play for a season without being injured or optioned to Pawtucket. Beyond durability, the other issue with Middlebrooks is his lack of plate discipline. In the few games he’s played in 2014, he’s still swinging at those outside pitches that can produce ground outs.

If Middlebrooks puts in another season where he’s not durable or improving at the plate, the Red Sox will need to make a decision on whether to give him another shot or cut bait. In 2013, Middlebrooks forced the team to make a decision mid-season and they had Jose Iglesias to fall back on. But in 2014, if Middlebrooks again forces the Red Sox to make a decision about him, then he might be part of a trade to bring a professional third baseman to Boston. The Red Sox have given Middlebrooks more than enough chances to win the job at third base, and it should be do-or-die time for him.

A.J. Pierzynski – As a writer, it’s in my best interests if the Red Sox cut Pierzynski because I won’t need to keep Googling that mess of a surname to make sure I’m spelling it correctly…

AJP (there, that’s better) has turned in a solid career as a catcher, and he had a better season than Jarrod Saltalamachia last year. Keep in mind that 2013 was likely Salty’s career year: he had a .372 average for balls in play, but still struck out at the same rate. So Salty had a lot of good luck at the plate last year, which made up for him being horrible behind the plate: he allowed 89 stolen bases, and had the most total baserunners try to steal off of him.

AJP isn’t the best defensive catcher, but he’s still a threat to gun down baserunners and a threat at the plate, so the Red Sox choosing AJP over Salty was a no-brainer.

Unfortunately, AJP looks like he put on weight over the offseason, and he’s looked bad at the plate. He hasn’t looked great behind the plate either, but he hasn’t been horrible. Hopefully he’s just off to a slow start and this isn’t his age finally catching up to him. AJP’s slow start would be easier to swallow if he appeared to be hustling, though. Players are judged by Boston fans on how much hustle they show, and if AJP doesn’t start hitting soon, he’s going to have a really rocky relationship with the Red Sox fan base.

Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts looks like a mature veteran at the plate, and I would be surprised if he didn’t rake 200 hits this season. In fact, I’d place some money on Bogaerts eventually passing Pete Rose and becoming baseball’s all time hits leader. But his fielding is a work in process. Besides the balls that were within his range but he couldn’t field, there were balls out of his range that Stephen Drew or Jose Iglesias would have reached. Boston fans were spoiled with superior shortstop fielding in 2013, and other teams have it worse. (How’s Segura working out for Milwaukee? And who’s that 40 year geezer playing in the Bronx?) But, hopefully Bogaerts will improve in the field. If he doesn’t, then perhaps Bogaerts can be the third baseman of the future if Middlebrooks doesn’t work out.

Like I mentioned from the start, none of this negativity means it’s the end of the world. But it’s just a few things to keep in mind and worry about, if you’re the worrying type of person. If you’re cheering for the Red Sox, then I’ll just assume you’re the worrying type.

ABC and ESPN should do a Selfie Evaluation

 Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (L) poses for a "selfie" with U.S. President Barack Obama during a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House to honor the 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox April 1, 2014 in Washington, DC. The Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2013 World Series

The uproar surrounding David Ortiz‘s selfie with President Obama taps into a couple strains of idiocy running rampant today: 1) Lazy journalism; and 2) Hatred of the Red Sox. Unfortunately, the first strain feeds into the second because editors know that many Americans outside of New England hate the Red Sox, so stories that bash the franchise are promoted despite their poor quality. Who needs honesty when you have advertising revenue generating clickbait?

And honesty was sorely lacking in the ABC News piece which started the controversy, starting with headline: “Why ‘Big Papi’ Got Paid to Take Selfie With President Obama.” Such a headline accuses Ortiz of wrongdoing by not disclosing an endorsement deal wherein he was offered payment to get a selfie with the President. A journalist should have solid evidence behind this accusation before an editor agrees to publish it. So what evidence did ABC News offer? A statement from a Samsung spokesman saying that they had a “relationship” with David Ortiz – that’s not confirmation that Ortiz was paid for his selfie.

David Ortiz is a superstar professional athlete who’s highly sought after by companies looking for professional athletes to endorse their products. Along with Samsung, Ortiz currently has a “relationship” with MTV; in the past, he’s had “relationships” with Reebok, Vitaminwater, New Era Cap, Easton, plus a restaurant and line of hot sauce carrying his name. To assume that Ortiz got paid to take a selfie with the President because he has a relationship with Samsung means that all of these other companies must have paid him for the selfie too, according to the “logic” of ABC News.

Let’s extend their “logic” further. ABC is the parent company to ESPN, the supposed “Worldwide Leader in Sports.” ESPN likes sports stories about superstar athletes, especially ambiguous stories that portray a negative tone, because such stories drive up ratings and help keep billions in advertising revenue flowing in. Since ABC and ESPN have a “relationship,” it’s easy to see where ABC just helped out ESPN. Now I don’t have evidence to prove my accusations are correct, but who needs proof when you have clickbait? Evidence is just for silly people, there’s money to be made here!

Since this story is about the face of a franchise that sports fans outside of New England love to hate, there’s a lot of money to be made here. Why talk about what’s actually happening on the field when you can bash the Boston Red Sox? Bashing the Sox is always a winning topic, and the media will let anyone who bashes the Sox have a voice. How else would a washed up A-ball pitcher in the Cardinals organization receive a national platform if he didn’t accuse the Red Sox of cheating in the World Series? Why else would anyone pay attention to Dirk Hayhurst when he accused Clay Buchholz of cheating? If charges of cheating were leveled against players on teams that are less successful than the Red Sox, those stories would fizzle out. Nobody cares. But when someone accuses a Red Sox player of nefarious deeds, then unlatch the flood gates and let the idiotic hate flow.

That’s how myths are created. Why pay attention to what’s happening on the field? Nobody cares that Justin Smoak just had a career series against the Angels, and this could be his coming out year as a star, because he plays for the Mariners. That’s not ratings worthy. But spreading lies and hate? That’s always worth its weight in gold.

[Correction: I accidentally listed Justin Smoak’s team as the Marines. Although Smoak is over six feet tall, weighs in at 230 lbs of mostly muscle, and he probably could be in the Marines, he’s actually a member of Seattle Mariners.]

photo credit: getty images

Bradley Jr. May Have Needed to Be Optioned to Pawtucket Even if Sizemore Wasn’t Involved

Jackie Bradley Jr. #25 of the Boston Red Sox runs to third base for a triple during the seventh inning of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium on March 11, 2014 in Sarasota, Florida.

The news that Jackie Bradley Jr. will start the season in Pawtucket isn’t surprising. I was in Ft. Myers this past week catching as many Boston Red Sox games that I could, and after seeing a solid week of JBJ playing, I’m surprised the Red Sox waited this long to announce that Grady Sizemore got the nod over JBJ.

Bradley is having tremendous troubles handling MLB pitching. In the games I saw where JBJ was pitted against MLB starters in their final tune up outings, not only did JBJ not manage to get a hit or draw a walk, but he had trouble making contact to put the ball in play. If JBJ didn’t strikeout, he would foul out. I can only recall one at-bat where JBJ hit the ball in fair territory, grounding out to shortstop.

I bring this up because, when considering whether the Red Sox made the right choice with keeping Bradley in Pawtucket, it’s important to look beyond the stats. JBJ’s stats are bad enough: .158 AVG / .213 OBP for spring training; and a dismal .059 / .059 (1 hit, 0 walks) since 3/21. Sometimes players experience bad luck, but they could be making solid contact while always hitting the ball at a fielder and becoming an out. This is not the case with JBJ, because in the final week of spring training he just wasn’t making solid contact, period. And if the Red Sox didn’t have a resurgent Grady Sizemore to fall back on, it may have been necessary for them to make a trade for an outfielder before opening day because JBJ’s performance has been that poor.

Bradley is still young and still a prospect, so unless Sizemore falls apart and the Red Sox need JBJ to perform immediately, another year of seasoning in AAA won’t hurt his progression as a player. But 2014 will be a make or break year for JBJ as a prospect. If Sizemore stays healthy and puts in a decent season, and JBJ hits .255 in Pawtucket, then Sizemore may become the Red Sox center fielder in the short term while the Sox look for a prospect to replace JBJ as the future.

photo credit: getty images

How great is David Ortiz?

Brief introduction: Hey there, I’m Walter Kosumak. I’m the pen name behind the NotWallyGM parody account on Twitter, and Ian has graciously given me the keys to write about the Boston Red Sox for SOX & Dawgs.

I’ll begin my first post with a grand statement: the best Red Sox hitters ever are Ted Williams, Carl Yaztrzemski, and David Ortiz.

Does that sound odd to you? Because it makes sense to me. When Ortiz said, before spring training, that he wanted a new contract, it launched a new round of “When will this guy get old?” conversations. That’s a shame. Instead of dwelling over his age, we should be reveling in witnessing the greatness of David Ortiz every time he steps to the plate.

Before defending the place I’ve given Ortiz among other Red Sox hitters, I’ll compare Ortiz’s recent performances to what we saw of him earlier in his career to see how he’s extended his career as a potent force at the plate. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and Ortiz has been so successful with these adjustments that you could say he doesn’t age – he merely adjusts.

Here’s a broad view of Ortiz’s stats from 2003 – 2010 and 2011 – 2013:

BA OBP OPS Avg HR
2003-10 .286 .386 .958 36
2011-13 .311 .401 .972 27

We can see a couple things going on here: Ortiz’s power has decreased with age, but his abilities to make contact with the ball and get on base have increased. It’s worth noting that Ortiz’s power decrease runs concurrent with a decline in home runs throughout baseball. In 2004, 5,451 home runs were hit; but we saw only 4,934 home runs in 2012. Maybe Ortiz’s power decrease isn’t age related, but this home run decline in all of baseball has, ironically, made Ortiz more valuable as he ages since players who can hit 25-35 HR are no longer a dime a dozen.

What abilities has Ortiz developed to beat age to remain one of baseball’s elite hitter? He’s added three elements to his game: hitting to all fields, better clutch hitting, and a newfound ability to get hits off left handed pitchers. These adjustments can be observed in some of Ortiz’s stat splits from 2008 – 2013.

First, here’s Ortiz’s ability to hit to all fields display in his batting average for balls hit up the middle and to the opposite field:

Up the Middle Opposite Field
2008 .299 .268
2009 .301 .356
2010 .398 .355
2011 .369 .405
2012 .390 .438
2013 .384 .379

Many managers still opt to place a defensive shift on Ortiz. This strategy that worked against Ortiz earlier in his career, as evidenced by his .268 average for opposite field balls in 2008. But since 2009, Ortiz’s average for balls he hits to the opposite field hasn’t dipped under .350. The younger Ortiz was more of a one-dimensional power hitter, but as Ortiz has aged, he’s become a superior contact hitter who not only sprays the ball to all fields, but does this while being one of the biggest power hitting threats in MLB.

This has helped Ortiz get more clutch hits. The notion that Ortiz has become better in the clutch seems unthinkable because he’s thought of as being Mr. Walk Off Homer, but check out these stat splits for his batting average with runners on second and third, and with the bases loaded.

Second & Third Bases Loaded
2008 .100 .400
2009 .083 .353
2010 .300 .267
2011 .263 .333
2012 .250 .500
2013 .455 .455

Ortiz having a high batting average with the bases loaded is understandable because pitchers can’t pitch around him when first base isn’t open, but hitting with runners on second and third must be a batter’s toughest job – especially when that batter has the power threat that Ortiz possess. Pitchers won’t want to throw Ortiz anything close to the strike zone, yet Ortiz has figured out ways to get hits in this situation. I triple-checked his .455 average in 2013 with runners on second and third and it’s not a joke. Ortiz has adjusted to find ways to be a better clutch hitter.

And Ortiz has accomplished this while hitting against all pitchers. Ortiz has always mashed right handed pitchers while having trouble against left handed pitchers, but look at these splits for his batting average against southpaws:

vs. LHP
2008 .221
2009 .212
2010 .222
2011 .329
2012 .320
2013 .260

Judging from Ortiz’s dip to .260 off LHP in 2013, perhaps pitchers have finally started adjusting to this new facet of his game. But .260 is around 45 points better than the averages vs. LHP he put up in 2008 – 2010.

Through these adjustments, Ortiz is becoming the definition of the cliche “40 is the new 30.” This is a player who should be in the twilight of his career and regressing, not progressing. And by figuring out ways to prolong his career, Ortiz is climbing the ranks of the Red Sox record book:

  • For On-Base Percentage, of all Red Sox hitters with over 5000 ABs and 1500 games, Ortiz is third all-time with .390; behind Ted Williams (.482, best all time in MLB) and Wade Boggs (.428).
  • For On-Base Plus Slugging, of all Red Sox hitters with over 1500 games, Ortiz is second (.962) behind Williams (1.116).
  • For Home Runs, Ortiz is currently fifth with 373 in a Red Sox uniform. Jim Rice is third with 382, and Dwight Evans is fourth at 379 – so Ortiz will likely by in third by the middle of May.
  • For RBIs, Ortiz is sixth with 1191 – but he has played only 1514 games as a member of the Red Sox. Everyone ahead of Ortiz has played over 1800 games for the team.

Those are the numbers that Ortiz has put up just with the Red Sox. For his career, Ortiz has 431 home runs and 1429 RBIs, with a .287 BA and .381 OBP. If Ortiz gets up to 1600-1700 RBIs, he’s in Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas and Ernie Banks territory. And if he has those RBIs while becoming a member of the 500 HR Club, then how can he not get into Cooperstown?

How feasible is it for David Ortiz to attain 500+ HR and 1600+ RBIs before the end of his career? Pretty damn feasible. Consider this: Jason Giambi was 43 in 2013 and he still found a job in baseball. Giambi was once a left handed power threat, but he hasn’t had a season with over 450 AB since 2008.

If Giambi can find a job as a pinch hitter at 43 (and it looks like Giambi will still be in MLB at 44), then it’s not difficult to imagine David Ortiz having playing options available to him over the next few seasons if he doesn’t choose to retire. So it’s likely that Ortiz will reach 500+ HR and 1600+ RBI.

Ortiz might have 500 HR right now if the Twins realized his potential and knew how to develop him as a player before giving up and releasing him.

Everything I’ve gone through doesn’t even take Ortiz’s postseason performances into account. I think we all remember those extra inning game winning hits in games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS, as well as his career .455 BA and .576 OBP in the World Series. Ortiz has 14 World Series RBIs, too – averaging 1 RBI per World Series game he’s played in. That’s not too shabby.

Not only has Ortiz been great, but we’re still witnessing his greatness. I could have lead off this piece with where Ortiz stands all time among Red Sox hitters, but then people would say “Yeah, that’s great, but he’s getting old.” By detailing how Ortiz has adjusted along with where he ranks all time among Red Sox hitters, it becomes clear that he doesn’t just have a few years of baseball left in him, but he will be talked about for generations after he retires. Our grandparents had Ted Williams, our parents had Carl Yaztrzemski, and we have David Ortiz.

Perhaps I’m biased, but as far as I’m concerned all of this should be enough to convince even the most grumpy Red Sox fan that the club extending Ortiz’s contract is worth it. For anyone who’s still not convinced, consider that another one of MLB’s premier hitters who hits for contact and has power just signed a 10 year, $292 contract extension. David Ortiz isn’t Miguel Cabrera, but with Ortiz making a guaranteed $31 million over the next two seasons to produce at a level a couple grades below what Cabrera brings to Detroit, it can be argued that Ortiz gave the Red Sox the biggest hometown discount in the history of baseball.