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Should we hate the Devil Rays more than the Yankees?

Any writer worth their [insert metaphor here: salt, poop, ascot, whatever] writes their introduction after they’re finished with the body of their piece. This column ended up being long. The topic is whether we should hate the Devil Rays more than the Yankees, and that’s enough of a description to let you feel the tenor of my piece before diving in. So this introductory paragraph has served its purpose.

The Yankees have a history of stealing the best talent from the Red Sox, beginning with Harry Frazee selling Babe Ruth to New York in 1919 – subsequently selling the soul of the Red Sox away for nearly a century. Perhaps it’s not coincidental that the Red Sox started winning championships again when another larger than life – and large around the waist – slugger anchored their lineup.

More recently, the Yankees had the services of former Boston favorites like Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Johnny Damon, and Kevin Youkilis. Jacoby Ellsbury threw away his soul, and a chance at Cooperstown, when New York gave him $153 million to play there right now. Even King of the Bearded Homeless Dude look Andrew Miller shaved off his face mane to look like the tallest 12 year old in the Yankees’ bullpen.

Couple this with the Alex Rodriguez trade clusterbleep in 2003 – where for months the then shortstop and now disgraced player was rumored to be coming to the Red Sox only to have the Yankees take him from us – and we remember how strong this rivalry has been. Back then, who could have predicted that Boston would benefit from not acquiring A-Roid? All we understood then is that the Yankees stole the best player in baseball from us, and it ruined Nomar Garciaparra’s faith in Boston’s front office management.

The cut throat, business-like, professional mentality of the Yankees make the Bronx Bombers the proper representatives of that borough which lies to the south of Yankee Stadium; the borough that contains the blood-sucking leeches on Wall Street who would slit our throats if it meant getting an extra percentage point return on their commodities portfolio.

If you think about it, the Yankees truly represent the city they play for. This fact is an oddity in an era when the NFL has overtaken MLB as America’s primary professional sport. This fact might even make you smile when you consider that NFL franchises stand for nothing. New York’s two football teams play in the same stadium in New Jersey, for bleep’s sake. As far as teams representing the character of a city goes, the NFL is a joke.

Ironically, that cut-throat professionalism of New York City also makes the Yankees an admirable foe. To the Yankees, baseball is just business. It’s not life or death, it’s just a job. Cut your hair, shave your beard, put your head down, don’t express much emotion, and just get the job done. No excuses. “Keep Calm and Chive On” if all you speak is bro. We may consider the way the Yankees play to be boring, but it isn’t offensive.

Afterward, George Steinbrenner would put the politics on the field aside to make an annual $10,000 contribution to the Jimmy Fund.

While we hate to see the Yankees win, all of that makes it tough to hate the Yankees themselves.

Contrast this with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who truly are the antithesis of Boston.

I will always call them the “Devil Rays,” but the reason why they changed their name to the “Rays” makes this team, like the Yankees, representative of the area they play for. There’s nothing refreshing about the Devil Rays representing crazy, paranoid, born again Bible thumping fundies who made the team remove “Devil” from their name because it was too evvvviiiiiillllll!

Boston has a strong Catholic tradition, but we don’t have the Bible thumpers on this level. And thank God. Or beer. Or bourbon. Or D-cups. Or whatever else you choose to worship. (I’ll stick with the latter three, thanks.)

It gets worse, because the Devil Rays represent not just a bi-city area, but a whole state full of crazy people that feels fake. People who move to Florida are wusses who are allergic to touching a shovel during the winter; and those who are born in Florida seem to be the stupidest people on the planet.

Florida is where anything obscenely fake is harvested. Their cash crop is plastic, which grows into gimmicks that no intelligent person can stand for longer than a vacation. So it’s little wonder that, in the land of Disney, Joe Maddon spread like a weed which the populace regarded as a flower.

The irony of Joe Maddon being weaned in an Angels organization that was formerly owned by Disney isn’t lost on astute observers like myself. Maddon is the gimmick that Devil Rays’ “fans” needed, and he titillated their simple minds just like a trip to Disney World might give an eight year old boy his first erection.

What’s the first stupid Maddon gimmick you can think of? The first one I think of is the defensive shift he employed against David Ortiz, which every stupid baseball “journalist” claims is one reason why Maddon is a super-bleepin-genius. Maddon’s defensive shifts worked so well that it led to Ortiz having a horrible career line against the Devil Rays: .281 BA, .397 OBP, 44 HR, 152 RBI, and… Well, actually, those are some pretty damn awesome stats. Guess the defensive shift Maddon employed didn’t do bleep. The shift didn’t help the Devil Rays in the 2013 ALDS either, when Ortiz had a .556 OBP with two homers. But hey, who needs success when you have the gimmick?

Another stupid Maddon gimmick is having pitchers take as much time as possible between pitches. Every stupid baseball journalist claims that the Devil Rays develop the best pitchers in baseball, but MLB Rule 8.04 says that, when there’s no one on base, pitchers must deliver the ball to the plate no more than 12 seconds after receiving the ball from the catcher. So how long did David Price take between pitches in 2014? Only [ahem] 26.6 seconds – the most in the majors. How about Chris Archer, another venerable stalwart of the Devil Rays supposed juggernaut? Archer took 25.2 second between pitches.

Starting to see a pattern here? Additionally, do you know how tough it is to throw a pitch? When a pitcher gets to take an extra couple of breaths before throwing to the plate again, they aren’t feeling as much pressure as other pitchers who play by the rules. This may explain why David Price has a career ERA of 3.16, yet when he’s in the high pressure situations of the postseason, his ERA spikes to 4.50. So much for that gimmick.

What’s worse than the Devil Rays’ on-field gimmicks, though, is their off-field gimmicks. The hockey-style fog horn blared through the speakers of their worst stadium in baseball whenever a Devil Rays player hit a home run, and their fans blowing vuvuzelas during game, is enough to make Ignatius J. Reilly shout “Who’s responsible for this abortion?”

Speaking of abortions:

What the bleep is this?

And what the bleep is this? Does baseball need a team whose main gimmick is [fill in the blank with the flavor of the month] roadtrip themed weekends?

To Tampa Bay, baseball isn’t a businees like it is in New York City; and it’s not a religion like is in Boston. No. To Tampa Bay, baseball is just another bleepin’ gimmick that needs glitter, a tight skirt and a vajazzle just to keep their interest because their minds aren’t advanced enough to enjoy the beautiful simplicity of the game.

What else do you need to hate the Devil Rays? Well, let’s do a comparison of real and fake stuff.

We have Dustin Pedroia, they have* Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is purported to be a spectacular baseball player, but he has two gimmicks: being overrated for playing multiple positions, and being a crazy Christian Fundie. Zobrist co-authored a book with his wife about their “We must home school our children with Jay-sus against the EVIL AMERICAN (ie: Northeast Urban) LIFESTYLE!” Don’t believe me? Here’s the description of their book on Amazon:

Ben and Julianna Zobrist are standout talents, both using their gifts to glorify God. Ben is an All Star Major League baseball player and helped lead the Tampa Bay Rays to the World Series. Ben represented the United States in the World Baseball Classic and also leads Bible studies with his teammates. Julianna is a recognized Christian music artist whose music has affected the culture for Christ nationally. Julianna has performed on both the mainstream and Christian platforms and is actively involved in film and radio. Both Ben and Julianna speak about their faith at events nationwide.

‘Nuf ced.

We have Big Papi, they had Luke Scott. I trust that, after years of #LukeScottFacts, I feel that I don’t need to expound on this.

We play real baseball, they have Joe Maddon.

They’re cheap, which is why they don’t steal our players.

Due to our sense of irony, there are even instances when our fake things are more real than their reality. For example, regarding fake Twitter accounts, Red Sox fans have, well… Me! And Devil Rays fans have “RaysFanGio,” who is nominally a real person but, since everything about Florida is fake, I don’t think his lame existence actually exists.

Boston is erudite city whose populace is enlightened to science. Florida has a governor who forbids state officials from mentioning “global warming” while Miami makes plans to deal with flooding…

But I digress. All of this strays away from the question of whether we, as Red Sox fans, should hate the Devil Rays more than the Yankees. Essentially, the fact that I even ask this means it is a rhetorical question. Given the attitude of both teams and the traditions of the geographic areas that they represent, the answer is obvious.

In fact, the only fake thing missing from Tampa Bay is Dan Shaughnessy. And they can bleepin’ take him.

* – I struggled with using present or past tense here. Zobrist now plays for the A’s, so should I use “had” or have”? Ultimately, I opted for the present tense because, even though Zobrist is no longer in Tampa Bay, he represented the patheticness of this organization for so long that he might as well still be a member of this band of ingrates.

Cespedes and the Value of Protection

Yoenis Cespedes #52 of the Boston Red Sox doubles in a run in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 6, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

Yoenis Cespedes #52 of the Boston Red Sox doubles in a run in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 6, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

When the Oakland A’s traded Yoenis Cespedes to Boston, something weird happened to Brandon Moss.

Moss has never been a great hitter. His batting average is low, his strikeouts are high – but he has power. He hit 30 home runs in 2013 and looked to be on his way to putting up similar stats this season. Moss, along with Cespedes and Josh Donaldson, comprised the core of Oakland’s hitting attack.

Swapping one of those power hitters for Jon Lester, an ace starter, seemed like an even deal. Oakland would score less runs, but pitching matters more than hitting in the playoffs. This trade shouldn’t have backfired.

But after Cespedes left, Brandon Moss became a shell of the hitter he was in 2013. In fact, Moss’ stats without Cespedes being on Oakland’s roster look similar to his stats when he hit behind Cespedes in the batting order instead of hitting in front of Cespedes.

This is interesting, because if Moss performed worse when Cespedes wasn’t protecting him in the batting order, this suggests that Cespedes provides value in the protection he provides to hitters in front of him. Sluggers protecting hitters is one of those facets of baseball that aren’t reflected in measures like WAR.

I will not call WAR a “stat” because it’s a weighted measurement of players, and as far as I’m concerned, the linear weights attached to calculations that comprise WAR are biased. Therefore, WAR is an opinion and not a stat. And the opinionated bias of WAR is reflected in things that those calculating WAR choose to ignore, like the protection power hitters provide to other hitters in the lineup.

To see what effect sluggers protecting hitters has, let’s look at what happens to Moss when Cespedes isn’t hitting behind him.

Cespedes mostly hit 4th when he was with Oakland; sometimes he hit 5th. Moss generally hit in front of Cespedes, but Oakland’s manager likes to switch the batting order around a lot so there’s a decent sample size of times when Moss hit behind Cespedes. During those times, when Moss bats 5th or 6th in Oakland’s batting order, he’s hitting .188 with a .317 OBP, and he has 5 HR. That’s one homer every 18 AB, which isn’t that bad, but you have to hit the ball to get on base and drive in runs. As a .188 average attests to, Moss was not hitting the ball when he batted behind Cespedes.

That stat line looks similar to Moss’ stats post-Cespedes. Here’s how Moss has done in August and September: .163 AVG / .317 OBP. His power has dropped off as well, with Moss hitting only 2 HR in that time.

Moss’ strikeouts are up as well. With Cespedes on the roster, Moss was striking out once every 4.22 plate appearances. But since Cespedes’ departure, Moss is striking out once every 3.24 PA. Similarly, when Moss hit behind Cespedes, he’s K:PA ratio jumped to 2.87.

Coincidentally, while Moss has regressed, David Ortiz‘s stats have received a boost since Cespedes arrived in Boston. Before the trade, Ortiz was hitting .250 with a .344 OBP, and he averaged a home run every 15.36 AB. Which isn’t bad, but look at Ortiz’s stats with Cespedes hitting behind him: .307 AVG / .393 OBP, and he’s averaging one HR every 14.11 AB.

What does this mean?

Brandon Moss regressing without Cespedes and Ortiz improving with Cespedes could just be a coincidence, true. But I’m reminded of something my favorite International Politics professor, one of those genius intellect type of people, told me when I was an undergrad: “I don’t believe in coincidences.” In baseball, just like in anything else, if something remarkable happens, there’s probably a clear and concise explanation for this event.

Something remarkable is happening to hitters when Cespedes is behind them in the batting order. Personally, I think slugger protection of hitters is the main factor here – but I could be wrong. Something I haven’t seen may be in play here; or it could be a combination of factors.

One thing all reasonable baseball fans should agree with, though, is Cespedes and slugger protection makes for an interesting discussion. I’d hate to see a discussion of Cespedes’ value devolve into an argument over what his WAR is, as so many discussions about players devolve to these days. This is interesting and worthy of further discussion. Let’s talk about it.

photo credit: getty images

The most honest Red Sox post you will ever read

There are 74 games left in the baseball season and the Red Sox look pretty [expletive deleted].

If you only pay attention to the number of games back the Red Sox are in the division and wild card races, which is what the optimists among us focus on, then the situation doesn’t look so [expletive deleted] horrible. In both races, the Red Sox are 9 games back. But let’s introduce our depressing pal reality to the discussion.

A team isn’t going to make the playoffs unless they have 88 [expletive deleted] wins. The Red Sox won’t sneak in with 82 wins, nor 83, nor [expletive deleted] 84. And if any baseball team ever makes it to the playoffs with such a pathetic win total, dump [expletive deleted] gasoline on the the wild card system and set that [expletive deleted] ablaze.

So, with 74 games left, the reality is that the Red Sox can lose 25 more games until it’s mathematically [expletive deleted] impossible for them to reach 88 wins. They will need to go 49 – 25, amassing a [expletive deleted] .662 winning percentage, from now until the end of the season just to have a chance of sniffing the second [expletive deleted] wild card spot.

Forty-nine wins. The Red Sox have only gotten [expletive deleted] 39 wins in the past 88 [expletive deleted] games.

Hell, to even reach [expletive deleted] .500 the Red Sox would need to go 42 – 32 over the last [expletive deleted] 74 games, and that’s means playing for a .568 winning percentage.

Is this feasible for a .443 team with the [expletive deleted] lowest amount of runs scored in the American League? A team that’s lumped in with [expletive deleted] the Cubs and [expletive deleted] Astros on the same level of [expletive deleted] suck right now? A team whose wins have seemed so [expletive deleted] unconvincing that finding out 15 of their [expletive deleted] measly 39 victories have come in one run [expletive deleted] nailbiters isn’t even remotely [expletive deleted] surprising?

[Expletive deleted] no. So 9 [expletive deleted] games back my [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted].

[Expletive deleted] [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted] [expletive deleted].

Ben [expletive deleted] needs to start [expletive deleted] selling off [expletive deleted] parts of this stupid [expletive deleted] team right the [expletive deleted] now to salvage some [expletive deleted] out of this [expletive deleted] season.

The 2014 Red Sox season is [expletive deleted] over, so for [expletive deleted]‘s sake, start [expletive deleted] selling.

I’m turning in my Masshole membership card and [expletive deleted] moving out of Boston anyway, so [expletive deleted] this [expletive deleted]. Now is a great [expletive deleted] time to go fair-weather and stop paying the [expletive deleted] attention to this [expletive deleted] dismal [expletive deleted] season. To me, the Red Sox are pretty much a [expletive deleted] dead topic at this point, so [expletive deleted] it.

Brock Holt, baBIP, and Reality

Brock Holt #26 of the Boston Red Sox attempts a bunt in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians on June 3, 2014 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

Brock Holt #26 of the Boston Red Sox attempts a bunt in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians on June 3, 2014 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

Brock Holt is not as good as you think he is – at the plate, at least. Holt has done a tremendous job in the field, making plays at first base and in left field that make our eyes jump out of their sockets. The fact that Holt has never played those two positions before and played them flawlessly while maintaining his torrid pace at the plate means he’s a hidden gem, and I’ve loved watching his emergence over the past month.

But Holt can’t keep this up. Nobody can.

Holt’s batting average on balls in play (baBIP) is currently .413. Every time Holt lays wood on the ball, it’s getting that lucky hop to go by a fielder. But the implication of luck here is important to note because when hitters sport a baBIP over .400 it some point during the season, it will not last. A hitter can gear their training to hit for more power or better contact to all fields, but it’s difficult to train for baBIP – it’s a luck-based statistic.

Pete Rose’s highest ever baBIP for one season was .368. Ted Williams’ highest ever baBIP was .378. Arguably, these are the greatest hitters of all time.

Since 1945, the only players who have sustained a .400+ baBIP are Rod Carew, Manny Ramirez, Roberto Clemente, and Jose Hernandez. Hernandez is the only oddity on that list. Other than Hernandez, we’re talking about players with Cooperstown numbers who managed to eek out a .400+ baBIP for an entire season once (or twice, in Carew’s case) in their careers.

So to expect Brock Holt to continue his current pace of ripping pitchers to shreds, we would have to expect him to be better than: Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Roberto Clemente, and Manny Ramirez. Holt would have to be that Jose Hernandez oddity.

Could that happen? Sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Many Hall of Fame hitters have tried and failed to have a baBIP over .400 for an entire season once in their careers. You would have to have an enormous amount of faith in Brock Holt to believe he can continue hitting like this.

Like I stated previously: I love watching Holt play. But at some point, reality will interlude and Holt’s hitting will drop off. When that happens and the Red Sox are forced to rely more on Stephen Drew, I hope every Boston sports journalist who said the Drew signing sucks will realize how important it is to have depth on the roster. Afterwards, I hope they all volunteer to retire and never be heard from again.

The Dead Ball Dead Sox

To say that the Red Sox lineup has appeared morbid is an understatement.

What’s most bothersome is how the lineup has not been able to execute against lackluster pitching, and last night was just another example of that. The Red Sox faced the once great CC Sabathia, but his fastball barely tops out over 88 mph these days. Sabathia still has a change-up (that acts a bit like a slider), and a curveball that he throws occasionally, but last night his pitch speeds hardly varied from the 82-88 mph range. We’re not talking about a pitcher who can toss 93-95 mph fastballs, pull the string with a sub-80’s mph change-up, and mix in a splitter or slower curveball. (Which a lot of younger starters in the big leagues are able to do right now. What happens when this Red Sox lineup faces those pitchers?)

In short, Sabathia should have gotten hammered last night – but the Red Sox ended up having more fielding errors than hits. That’s embarrassing.

What’s more embarrassing are some stats that Red Sox hitters are amassing. I’ll only highlight a couple because: 1) We don’t have all day to look at the trove; and 2) Looking at everything might induce Friday afternoon weeping.

First, here are the stats for runners in scoring position for 2013 and 2014 for David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, and Daniel Nava.

BA w/RISP OBP w/RISP RBI w/RISP
Ortiz
2013 .315 .453 72
2014 .174 .318 7
Napoli
2013 .257 .372 73
2014 .174 .269 9
Pedroia
2013 .312 .369 72
2014 .263 .263 4
Nava
2013 .306 .392 58
2014 .091 .286 1

When you focus on stats as a whole, without narrowing it down to RISP, players like Ortiz and Napoli look fine. Napoli is hitting .294 with 5 homers, Ortiz is starting out slow with a .256 average but he has 4 homers. But when you narrow their stats down to how they’re hitting with RISP, when compared to how they hit in 2013, you see where the problem lies.

The biggest shocker here, though, is Daniel Nava. It’s weird to think of Nava, who was essentially a platoon player, as a core part of the Red Sox hitting attack in 2013, but look at how he raked with RISP: .306 average, 58 RBIs. And now? Nava isn’t even on the 25 man roster now. That’s a huge loss.

Speaking of huge losses for the Red Sox, let’s see how Jacoby Ellsbury‘s loss as effected the line up. This next stat comparison may not be fair because Shane Victorino has been on the disabled list, and both Red Sox players I highlight weren’t expected to replace Ellsbury. Regardless, Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both centerfielders who are expected to get on base and steal bases. I’ve combined Sizemore and JBJ’s April 2014 stats and compared them with Ellsbury’s stat line from April 2013.

OBP Runs SB 2B 3B
Ellsbury (April 2013) .336 19 11 6 3
Sizemore/JBJ (April 2014) .300 15 6 6 1

Unfortunately, one Sizemore and one JBJ are not equal to one Ellsbury. Both players have been struggling, with Sizemore hitting .212 and JBJ doing worse with a .206 batting average. Even though JBJ is getting on base at an average rate, as reflected in his .324 OBP, this isn’t satisfactory. Both players combined are not getting the job done.

Not that it matters, because the meat of the Red Sox batting order isn’t hitting with runners in scoring position anyway. With Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino returning, the Red Sox have most of the lineup that they wanted for 2014 in place (minus Daniel Nava, who looked completely lost at the plate). Ryan Roberts and Jonathan Herrera aren’t whiffing every time the step to the plate anymore, so the Red Sox are out of excuses. It’s time to start hitting.

This Red Sox lineup has some serious problems right now, and the solution isn’t telling A.J. Pierzynski to swing at less pitches. The problems start with the team’s core not being able to produce, and if they don’t figure out a way to hammer pitchers like Sabathia soon, then maybe they’ll need to take pitching lessons from Mike Carp. Because they’ll all be throwing an inning or two soon.

The Game Hidden Between Buchholz’s Pitches

Clay Buchholz #11of the Boston Red Sox reacts after getting taken out in the third inning after giving up six runs against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park April 21, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

When two teams play baseball, two games are being played simultaneously: the pitching, hitting, and fielding game that fans see, and the hidden (don’t call it “cheating”) game where players try to get gain a competitive edge on the opposition.

Fans usually hear about the hidden game after the fact – like when Joe Mauer stole signs in a game against Detroit in 2009. Mauer was on second base and had a clear view of every sign the catcher dropped down. When Mauer figured out whether a fastball or breaking ball was coming, he would either touch his helmet or do nothing before the pitch to relay that information to the batter. Occasionally, play-by-play announcers will catch onto the hidden game and report it during a game. The most recent example of that is Don and Jerry ranting about the pine tar on Michael Pineda‘s hand during a recent Red Sox v. Yankees game.

But whether or not we, as fans, are lucky enough to hear about it, the hidden game is always being played inside of a baseball game.

So when Clay Buchholz gave up seven hits and six runs in the third inning of yesterday’s Red Sox game with the Orioles, was the hidden game being played? Absolutely. And I wish I could tell you the details of that game.

One complaint I’ve had about NESN over the years is their lack of focus on the game itself. Frequently during games, a player will get a hit and NESN will spend time panning the camera on the player while he’s standing on base, then switch to the next pitch being thrown while the pitcher is in mid-windup. Then there are other diversions: like a fan throwing pizza at another fan, or Heidi Watney choking on a corn dog (which became metaphor nobody needs to think too deeply about to grasp)… There’s a million little diversions to point out, and I don’t mean to be a killjoy, but they all distract from both baseball games that are being played.

In the case of Buchholz’s disastrous third inning, I watched it over again a couple of times. Only once did NESN allow me to see some signs that David Ross dropped to Buchholz to decide on which pitch to throw. At barely any time did NESN have a camera on the Orioles’ baserunners, so I couldn’t tell if they made any telltale body motions that tipped off Buchholz’s next pitch to the batter.

But, despite NESN’s distractions that don’t allow us to keep our attention on the game; and despite the implication that the other team must be cheating, an explanation for the Orioles hammering Buchholz may be more mundane: they may have picked up on where Ross set himself up to receive Buchholz’s pitches, and they were able to relay that information to the batter.

I don’t consider this cheating because, quite frankly, if Buchholz didn’t take forever and a day to make a pitch when runners are on base, baserunners probably wouldn’t have time to relay information about where Ross has set up to the batter.

There’s a few examples where Buchholz’s extended delay between pitches gave Orioles’ baserunners enough time to relay information about the upcoming pitch to the batter. I’m not saying the Orioles baserunners did relay this information since, as I mentioned, I couldn’t tell what the baserunners were doing because of the way NESN broadcasts their games. I’m just saying that Orioles’ baserunners had time to relay information about the next pitch, and this is mostly due to Buchholz’s long delay between pitches when runners are on base.

Example 1: The first batter of the inning, Steve Lombardozzi, hits a single. Next batter is David Lough. Ross immediately sets up outside, then Buchholz steps off the rubber. Delay. Buchholz prepares to pitch again, but throws a pick off attempt to first base. Another delay. After the pick off attempt, Ross sets up outside again – so they never changed what pitch was next up – and Lough gets a first pitch single. It took Buchholz around a minute to get through that charade and deliver a pitch to the plate, and anyone paying attention to where Ross setup would have known what was coming. Lough certainly did.

Example 2: After Lough, Nick Markakis came to the plate. This is the only time NESN allowed the viewer to see what signs Ross dropped to Buchholz between one of the pitches, the 2-2 pitch. Ross’s sequence ended with two fingers, Buchholz appeared to throw a two seam fastball, and Markakis smacked it for a single. It’s worth noting that in this at bat, and throughout the inning, Ross sometimes tried to deliberately slow down the time it took him to set up to receive the pitch – waiting until Buchholz was in his windup. So, in this instance, the Orioles may have stolen a sign. Also worth noting that Buchholz’s pitch was a meatball down the center of the plate, so maybe the Orioles didn’t even need to steal a sign.

Example 3: Nelson Cruz bats after Nick Markakis. Ross sets up outside way before Buchholz starts to deliver his pitch, and Cruz swings like he knows an outside fastball is coming – but Buchholz misses his target by a foot, it becomes an inside fastball that Cruz fouls off. Ross again sets up early on the 0-1 pitch, and it’s the outside fastball Buchholz tried pitching the first time. Cruz smacks it for a single.

Afterwards, Buchholz induced a fielder’s choice ground ball from Adam Jones (albeit with a run scored), but Steve Clevenger gets a hit with a ball deep to right field. Jonathan Schoop, the last batter Buchholz faces, has a seven pitch at bat that ends when he hits a curveball off the Green Monster. Buchholz’s first pitch to Schoop was a curveball off the plate, so Schoop already knew what Buchholz’s curveball looked like. Unfortunately, Buchholz’s second curveball was over the plate. Schoop’s hit was probably totally legit.

As I mentioned previously: Do I know if Orioles’ baserunners were relaying information about Buchholz’s pitches to batters? Nope. Absolutely not. Due to the way NESN broadcasts these games, I don’t have a clue regarding what the Orioles’ baserunners were doing. But it’s quite feasible that, because of Buchholz’s intentional laboring between pitches, he gave the Orioles time to execute the hidden game against him.

All it took was Lombardozzi’s single at the top of the inning to give the Orioles a baserunner with a chance to relay Ross’s placement to receive Buchholz’s pitches to batters, and the Orioles certainly executed after that. Buchholz gave up seven hits – including 5 hits in a row – and six runs.

After the game, John Farrell said that nothing is physically wrong with Buchholz. Comments were made about Buchholz needing to increase his arm strength, which would explain why his fastball barely tops 90 mph. His pitches also lack movement, and 88-90 mph straight fastballs can easily become batting practice pitches. So maybe Buchholz just sucked. Or maybe he’s hiding an injury and he should go on the DL.

But, if you’re able to catch a replay of the game, watch that third inning again. Don’t you think that something hidden, that we didn’t see the first time we watched the game, could be going on?

photo credit: getty images

A few Red Sox trouble spots to start the season

It’s easy to be negative in Boston, the town where we still reflexively react to the frustration of waiting 86 years to win a World Series despite winning in the past decade. So let me preface this post by saying that the Apocalypse is not nigh: it’s only the first week of the baseball season, Detroit still has a perfect record, Arizona is an unspeakable 1-7, the Devil Rays are in first place, and these are all examples of things that won’t last.

And the Red Sox have shown flashes of brilliance, on and off the field. Henry, Lucchino and Werner surprising David Ortiz with a World Series MVP ring was a stroke of genius because the currency Ortiz recognizes is respect. In baseball, respect is most often measured in contract dollars, so Ortiz occasionally complains that he’s not getting paid at the same level of his peers. By giving him the World Series MVP ring, Red Sox ownership usurped currency as a measure of respect and gave Ortiz the gift of ultimate respect. That ring is worth more than a $100 million contract to Ortiz, and it probably cost less than $500,000, so the gift was a shrewd business move.

So, with that said, let me revert to my normal negative Bostonian self and dwell on the bad news.

Clay Buchholz – After years of waiting for Buchholz to reach his potential and put together a season as an Cy Young contender with 200+ innings pitched, the Red Sox have resigned themselves to assuming that Buchholz will go on the DL at least once a season and made him the fifth starter. It’s a shame that Buchholz has only been able to put it together for 10-15 starts a season because, in those games, he looks everything like the Cy Young-esque pitcher we thought he would become. Getting those types of starts from the fifth starter would, at least, demonstrate the strength of the Red Sox starting rotation.

Where Buchholz is concerned, though, you always have to fear when (not if, but when) he’ll go on the DL. Under that pretense, his start against Milwaukee on April 5 was worrying because his fastball just wasn’t fast. Most of his fastballs were 88-89 mph (a couple reached 90 mph), which left little difference between his fastball and 85-86 mph change-up. And both pitches had little movement on them; they were left up in the zone and Brewers hitters hammered them.

Buchholz couldn’t throw his curveball effectively either, which usually doesn’t concern me because a curveball is tough for any pitcher to throw in cold weather (aces like Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright both had trouble snapping off curveballs last October), but since Buchholz’s other pitches weren’t working, now it could be a cause for concern; if only because he doesn’t have a third pitch to rely on when his fastball isn’t humming.

But Buchholz’s loss of velocity is my biggest concern, because it could mean he’s holding back and that’s indicative of an injury. The Red Sox have enough depth to cover for an injured starter – Brandon Workman has looked great so far – but I’ll take Buchholz at 100% over Workman; or Jon Lester, or John Lackey, or mostly any other pitcher, quite honestly. Without a healthy Buchholz, the Red Sox once strong rotation now has just another fifth starter. Even if that starter is Workman or one of the prospects in Pawtucket, it will still led to more losses than when Buchholz is pitching.

Will Middlebrooks – A day after hitting a solo home run and looking like he was getting hot at the plate, Middlebrooks was scratched from the lineup on April 5 because of a leg cramp; and wasn’t even available to pinch hit in what became an extra innings loss where the Red Sox really could have used his bat. He’s missing from the April 6 lineup as well, and reports say he’s getting an MRI on his right calf.  Middlebrooks was placed on the 15 day DL about point-five seconds after I wrote that part I crossed out. Sigh.

Unlike depth at other positions, Red Sox don’t have much depth at third base until Garin Cecchini is MLB-ready. The team lucked out last year with Jose Iglesias, after Middlebrooks worked himself into a well deserved demotion to Pawtucket.

Middlebrooks hit .194 in April 2013, and just .138 in June 2013 before being sent down – and he was making a throwing error to first base every 5-6 games, it seemed. Jose Iglesias served has surprise depth the Red Sox didn’t realize that they had, and the fact that Wil Myers won the Rookie of the Year award over Iglesias was a crime. Iglesias at least should have been awarded some sort of combo Gold Glove for SS/3B or something. Not to digress, but why doesn’t a utility infielder Gold Glove exist?

Regardless, Iglesias is on the DL now, so even if the Red Sox kept him, they would still have to depend on Middlebrooks because the other options are Brock Holt and Brandon Synder. But can the Red Sox depend on Middlebrooks? He has yet to play a full MLB season, and this year is Will’s third chance to get it together and play for a season without being injured or optioned to Pawtucket. Beyond durability, the other issue with Middlebrooks is his lack of plate discipline. In the few games he’s played in 2014, he’s still swinging at those outside pitches that can produce ground outs.

If Middlebrooks puts in another season where he’s not durable or improving at the plate, the Red Sox will need to make a decision on whether to give him another shot or cut bait. In 2013, Middlebrooks forced the team to make a decision mid-season and they had Jose Iglesias to fall back on. But in 2014, if Middlebrooks again forces the Red Sox to make a decision about him, then he might be part of a trade to bring a professional third baseman to Boston. The Red Sox have given Middlebrooks more than enough chances to win the job at third base, and it should be do-or-die time for him.

A.J. Pierzynski – As a writer, it’s in my best interests if the Red Sox cut Pierzynski because I won’t need to keep Googling that mess of a surname to make sure I’m spelling it correctly…

AJP (there, that’s better) has turned in a solid career as a catcher, and he had a better season than Jarrod Saltalamachia last year. Keep in mind that 2013 was likely Salty’s career year: he had a .372 average for balls in play, but still struck out at the same rate. So Salty had a lot of good luck at the plate last year, which made up for him being horrible behind the plate: he allowed 89 stolen bases, and had the most total baserunners try to steal off of him.

AJP isn’t the best defensive catcher, but he’s still a threat to gun down baserunners and a threat at the plate, so the Red Sox choosing AJP over Salty was a no-brainer.

Unfortunately, AJP looks like he put on weight over the offseason, and he’s looked bad at the plate. He hasn’t looked great behind the plate either, but he hasn’t been horrible. Hopefully he’s just off to a slow start and this isn’t his age finally catching up to him. AJP’s slow start would be easier to swallow if he appeared to be hustling, though. Players are judged by Boston fans on how much hustle they show, and if AJP doesn’t start hitting soon, he’s going to have a really rocky relationship with the Red Sox fan base.

Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts looks like a mature veteran at the plate, and I would be surprised if he didn’t rake 200 hits this season. In fact, I’d place some money on Bogaerts eventually passing Pete Rose and becoming baseball’s all time hits leader. But his fielding is a work in process. Besides the balls that were within his range but he couldn’t field, there were balls out of his range that Stephen Drew or Jose Iglesias would have reached. Boston fans were spoiled with superior shortstop fielding in 2013, and other teams have it worse. (How’s Segura working out for Milwaukee? And who’s that 40 year geezer playing in the Bronx?) But, hopefully Bogaerts will improve in the field. If he doesn’t, then perhaps Bogaerts can be the third baseman of the future if Middlebrooks doesn’t work out.

Like I mentioned from the start, none of this negativity means it’s the end of the world. But it’s just a few things to keep in mind and worry about, if you’re the worrying type of person. If you’re cheering for the Red Sox, then I’ll just assume you’re the worrying type.

Bradley Jr. May Have Needed to Be Optioned to Pawtucket Even if Sizemore Wasn’t Involved

Jackie Bradley Jr. #25 of the Boston Red Sox runs to third base for a triple during the seventh inning of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium on March 11, 2014 in Sarasota, Florida.

The news that Jackie Bradley Jr. will start the season in Pawtucket isn’t surprising. I was in Ft. Myers this past week catching as many Boston Red Sox games that I could, and after seeing a solid week of JBJ playing, I’m surprised the Red Sox waited this long to announce that Grady Sizemore got the nod over JBJ.

Bradley is having tremendous troubles handling MLB pitching. In the games I saw where JBJ was pitted against MLB starters in their final tune up outings, not only did JBJ not manage to get a hit or draw a walk, but he had trouble making contact to put the ball in play. If JBJ didn’t strikeout, he would foul out. I can only recall one at-bat where JBJ hit the ball in fair territory, grounding out to shortstop.

I bring this up because, when considering whether the Red Sox made the right choice with keeping Bradley in Pawtucket, it’s important to look beyond the stats. JBJ’s stats are bad enough: .158 AVG / .213 OBP for spring training; and a dismal .059 / .059 (1 hit, 0 walks) since 3/21. Sometimes players experience bad luck, but they could be making solid contact while always hitting the ball at a fielder and becoming an out. This is not the case with JBJ, because in the final week of spring training he just wasn’t making solid contact, period. And if the Red Sox didn’t have a resurgent Grady Sizemore to fall back on, it may have been necessary for them to make a trade for an outfielder before opening day because JBJ’s performance has been that poor.

Bradley is still young and still a prospect, so unless Sizemore falls apart and the Red Sox need JBJ to perform immediately, another year of seasoning in AAA won’t hurt his progression as a player. But 2014 will be a make or break year for JBJ as a prospect. If Sizemore stays healthy and puts in a decent season, and JBJ hits .255 in Pawtucket, then Sizemore may become the Red Sox center fielder in the short term while the Sox look for a prospect to replace JBJ as the future.

photo credit: getty images

How great is David Ortiz?

Brief introduction: Hey there, I’m Walter Kosumak. I’m the pen name behind the NotWallyGM parody account on Twitter, and Ian has graciously given me the keys to write about the Boston Red Sox for SOX & Dawgs.

I’ll begin my first post with a grand statement: the best Red Sox hitters ever are Ted Williams, Carl Yaztrzemski, and David Ortiz.

Does that sound odd to you? Because it makes sense to me. When Ortiz said, before spring training, that he wanted a new contract, it launched a new round of “When will this guy get old?” conversations. That’s a shame. Instead of dwelling over his age, we should be reveling in witnessing the greatness of David Ortiz every time he steps to the plate.

Before defending the place I’ve given Ortiz among other Red Sox hitters, I’ll compare Ortiz’s recent performances to what we saw of him earlier in his career to see how he’s extended his career as a potent force at the plate. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and Ortiz has been so successful with these adjustments that you could say he doesn’t age – he merely adjusts.

Here’s a broad view of Ortiz’s stats from 2003 – 2010 and 2011 – 2013:

BA OBP OPS Avg HR
2003-10 .286 .386 .958 36
2011-13 .311 .401 .972 27

We can see a couple things going on here: Ortiz’s power has decreased with age, but his abilities to make contact with the ball and get on base have increased. It’s worth noting that Ortiz’s power decrease runs concurrent with a decline in home runs throughout baseball. In 2004, 5,451 home runs were hit; but we saw only 4,934 home runs in 2012. Maybe Ortiz’s power decrease isn’t age related, but this home run decline in all of baseball has, ironically, made Ortiz more valuable as he ages since players who can hit 25-35 HR are no longer a dime a dozen.

What abilities has Ortiz developed to beat age to remain one of baseball’s elite hitter? He’s added three elements to his game: hitting to all fields, better clutch hitting, and a newfound ability to get hits off left handed pitchers. These adjustments can be observed in some of Ortiz’s stat splits from 2008 – 2013.

First, here’s Ortiz’s ability to hit to all fields display in his batting average for balls hit up the middle and to the opposite field:

Up the Middle Opposite Field
2008 .299 .268
2009 .301 .356
2010 .398 .355
2011 .369 .405
2012 .390 .438
2013 .384 .379

Many managers still opt to place a defensive shift on Ortiz. This strategy that worked against Ortiz earlier in his career, as evidenced by his .268 average for opposite field balls in 2008. But since 2009, Ortiz’s average for balls he hits to the opposite field hasn’t dipped under .350. The younger Ortiz was more of a one-dimensional power hitter, but as Ortiz has aged, he’s become a superior contact hitter who not only sprays the ball to all fields, but does this while being one of the biggest power hitting threats in MLB.

This has helped Ortiz get more clutch hits. The notion that Ortiz has become better in the clutch seems unthinkable because he’s thought of as being Mr. Walk Off Homer, but check out these stat splits for his batting average with runners on second and third, and with the bases loaded.

Second & Third Bases Loaded
2008 .100 .400
2009 .083 .353
2010 .300 .267
2011 .263 .333
2012 .250 .500
2013 .455 .455

Ortiz having a high batting average with the bases loaded is understandable because pitchers can’t pitch around him when first base isn’t open, but hitting with runners on second and third must be a batter’s toughest job – especially when that batter has the power threat that Ortiz possess. Pitchers won’t want to throw Ortiz anything close to the strike zone, yet Ortiz has figured out ways to get hits in this situation. I triple-checked his .455 average in 2013 with runners on second and third and it’s not a joke. Ortiz has adjusted to find ways to be a better clutch hitter.

And Ortiz has accomplished this while hitting against all pitchers. Ortiz has always mashed right handed pitchers while having trouble against left handed pitchers, but look at these splits for his batting average against southpaws:

vs. LHP
2008 .221
2009 .212
2010 .222
2011 .329
2012 .320
2013 .260

Judging from Ortiz’s dip to .260 off LHP in 2013, perhaps pitchers have finally started adjusting to this new facet of his game. But .260 is around 45 points better than the averages vs. LHP he put up in 2008 – 2010.

Through these adjustments, Ortiz is becoming the definition of the cliche “40 is the new 30.” This is a player who should be in the twilight of his career and regressing, not progressing. And by figuring out ways to prolong his career, Ortiz is climbing the ranks of the Red Sox record book:

  • For On-Base Percentage, of all Red Sox hitters with over 5000 ABs and 1500 games, Ortiz is third all-time with .390; behind Ted Williams (.482, best all time in MLB) and Wade Boggs (.428).
  • For On-Base Plus Slugging, of all Red Sox hitters with over 1500 games, Ortiz is second (.962) behind Williams (1.116).
  • For Home Runs, Ortiz is currently fifth with 373 in a Red Sox uniform. Jim Rice is third with 382, and Dwight Evans is fourth at 379 – so Ortiz will likely by in third by the middle of May.
  • For RBIs, Ortiz is sixth with 1191 – but he has played only 1514 games as a member of the Red Sox. Everyone ahead of Ortiz has played over 1800 games for the team.

Those are the numbers that Ortiz has put up just with the Red Sox. For his career, Ortiz has 431 home runs and 1429 RBIs, with a .287 BA and .381 OBP. If Ortiz gets up to 1600-1700 RBIs, he’s in Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas and Ernie Banks territory. And if he has those RBIs while becoming a member of the 500 HR Club, then how can he not get into Cooperstown?

How feasible is it for David Ortiz to attain 500+ HR and 1600+ RBIs before the end of his career? Pretty damn feasible. Consider this: Jason Giambi was 43 in 2013 and he still found a job in baseball. Giambi was once a left handed power threat, but he hasn’t had a season with over 450 AB since 2008.

If Giambi can find a job as a pinch hitter at 43 (and it looks like Giambi will still be in MLB at 44), then it’s not difficult to imagine David Ortiz having playing options available to him over the next few seasons if he doesn’t choose to retire. So it’s likely that Ortiz will reach 500+ HR and 1600+ RBI.

Ortiz might have 500 HR right now if the Twins realized his potential and knew how to develop him as a player before giving up and releasing him.

Everything I’ve gone through doesn’t even take Ortiz’s postseason performances into account. I think we all remember those extra inning game winning hits in games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS, as well as his career .455 BA and .576 OBP in the World Series. Ortiz has 14 World Series RBIs, too – averaging 1 RBI per World Series game he’s played in. That’s not too shabby.

Not only has Ortiz been great, but we’re still witnessing his greatness. I could have lead off this piece with where Ortiz stands all time among Red Sox hitters, but then people would say “Yeah, that’s great, but he’s getting old.” By detailing how Ortiz has adjusted along with where he ranks all time among Red Sox hitters, it becomes clear that he doesn’t just have a few years of baseball left in him, but he will be talked about for generations after he retires. Our grandparents had Ted Williams, our parents had Carl Yaztrzemski, and we have David Ortiz.

Perhaps I’m biased, but as far as I’m concerned all of this should be enough to convince even the most grumpy Red Sox fan that the club extending Ortiz’s contract is worth it. For anyone who’s still not convinced, consider that another one of MLB’s premier hitters who hits for contact and has power just signed a 10 year, $292 contract extension. David Ortiz isn’t Miguel Cabrera, but with Ortiz making a guaranteed $31 million over the next two seasons to produce at a level a couple grades below what Cabrera brings to Detroit, it can be argued that Ortiz gave the Red Sox the biggest hometown discount in the history of baseball.