Tag Archives: david ortiz

Cespedes and the Value of Protection

Yoenis Cespedes #52 of the Boston Red Sox doubles in a run in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 6, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

Yoenis Cespedes #52 of the Boston Red Sox doubles in a run in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on September 6, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts.

When the Oakland A’s traded Yoenis Cespedes to Boston, something weird happened to Brandon Moss.

Moss has never been a great hitter. His batting average is low, his strikeouts are high – but he has power. He hit 30 home runs in 2013 and looked to be on his way to putting up similar stats this season. Moss, along with Cespedes and Josh Donaldson, comprised the core of Oakland’s hitting attack.

Swapping one of those power hitters for Jon Lester, an ace starter, seemed like an even deal. Oakland would score less runs, but pitching matters more than hitting in the playoffs. This trade shouldn’t have backfired.

But after Cespedes left, Brandon Moss became a shell of the hitter he was in 2013. In fact, Moss’ stats without Cespedes being on Oakland’s roster look similar to his stats when he hit behind Cespedes in the batting order instead of hitting in front of Cespedes.

This is interesting, because if Moss performed worse when Cespedes wasn’t protecting him in the batting order, this suggests that Cespedes provides value in the protection he provides to hitters in front of him. Sluggers protecting hitters is one of those facets of baseball that aren’t reflected in measures like WAR.

I will not call WAR a “stat” because it’s a weighted measurement of players, and as far as I’m concerned, the linear weights attached to calculations that comprise WAR are biased. Therefore, WAR is an opinion and not a stat. And the opinionated bias of WAR is reflected in things that those calculating WAR choose to ignore, like the protection power hitters provide to other hitters in the lineup.

To see what effect sluggers protecting hitters has, let’s look at what happens to Moss when Cespedes isn’t hitting behind him.

Cespedes mostly hit 4th when he was with Oakland; sometimes he hit 5th. Moss generally hit in front of Cespedes, but Oakland’s manager likes to switch the batting order around a lot so there’s a decent sample size of times when Moss hit behind Cespedes. During those times, when Moss bats 5th or 6th in Oakland’s batting order, he’s hitting .188 with a .317 OBP, and he has 5 HR. That’s one homer every 18 AB, which isn’t that bad, but you have to hit the ball to get on base and drive in runs. As a .188 average attests to, Moss was not hitting the ball when he batted behind Cespedes.

That stat line looks similar to Moss’ stats post-Cespedes. Here’s how Moss has done in August and September: .163 AVG / .317 OBP. His power has dropped off as well, with Moss hitting only 2 HR in that time.

Moss’ strikeouts are up as well. With Cespedes on the roster, Moss was striking out once every 4.22 plate appearances. But since Cespedes’ departure, Moss is striking out once every 3.24 PA. Similarly, when Moss hit behind Cespedes, he’s K:PA ratio jumped to 2.87.

Coincidentally, while Moss has regressed, David Ortiz‘s stats have received a boost since Cespedes arrived in Boston. Before the trade, Ortiz was hitting .250 with a .344 OBP, and he averaged a home run every 15.36 AB. Which isn’t bad, but look at Ortiz’s stats with Cespedes hitting behind him: .307 AVG / .393 OBP, and he’s averaging one HR every 14.11 AB.

What does this mean?

Brandon Moss regressing without Cespedes and Ortiz improving with Cespedes could just be a coincidence, true. But I’m reminded of something my favorite International Politics professor, one of those genius intellect type of people, told me when I was an undergrad: “I don’t believe in coincidences.” In baseball, just like in anything else, if something remarkable happens, there’s probably a clear and concise explanation for this event.

Something remarkable is happening to hitters when Cespedes is behind them in the batting order. Personally, I think slugger protection of hitters is the main factor here – but I could be wrong. Something I haven’t seen may be in play here; or it could be a combination of factors.

One thing all reasonable baseball fans should agree with, though, is Cespedes and slugger protection makes for an interesting discussion. I’d hate to see a discussion of Cespedes’ value devolve into an argument over what his WAR is, as so many discussions about players devolve to these days. This is interesting and worthy of further discussion. Let’s talk about it.

photo credit: getty images

The Dead Ball Dead Sox

To say that the Red Sox lineup has appeared morbid is an understatement.

What’s most bothersome is how the lineup has not been able to execute against lackluster pitching, and last night was just another example of that. The Red Sox faced the once great CC Sabathia, but his fastball barely tops out over 88 mph these days. Sabathia still has a change-up (that acts a bit like a slider), and a curveball that he throws occasionally, but last night his pitch speeds hardly varied from the 82-88 mph range. We’re not talking about a pitcher who can toss 93-95 mph fastballs, pull the string with a sub-80’s mph change-up, and mix in a splitter or slower curveball. (Which a lot of younger starters in the big leagues are able to do right now. What happens when this Red Sox lineup faces those pitchers?)

In short, Sabathia should have gotten hammered last night – but the Red Sox ended up having more fielding errors than hits. That’s embarrassing.

What’s more embarrassing are some stats that Red Sox hitters are amassing. I’ll only highlight a couple because: 1) We don’t have all day to look at the trove; and 2) Looking at everything might induce Friday afternoon weeping.

First, here are the stats for runners in scoring position for 2013 and 2014 for David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, and Daniel Nava.

BA w/RISP OBP w/RISP RBI w/RISP
Ortiz
2013 .315 .453 72
2014 .174 .318 7
Napoli
2013 .257 .372 73
2014 .174 .269 9
Pedroia
2013 .312 .369 72
2014 .263 .263 4
Nava
2013 .306 .392 58
2014 .091 .286 1

When you focus on stats as a whole, without narrowing it down to RISP, players like Ortiz and Napoli look fine. Napoli is hitting .294 with 5 homers, Ortiz is starting out slow with a .256 average but he has 4 homers. But when you narrow their stats down to how they’re hitting with RISP, when compared to how they hit in 2013, you see where the problem lies.

The biggest shocker here, though, is Daniel Nava. It’s weird to think of Nava, who was essentially a platoon player, as a core part of the Red Sox hitting attack in 2013, but look at how he raked with RISP: .306 average, 58 RBIs. And now? Nava isn’t even on the 25 man roster now. That’s a huge loss.

Speaking of huge losses for the Red Sox, let’s see how Jacoby Ellsbury‘s loss as effected the line up. This next stat comparison may not be fair because Shane Victorino has been on the disabled list, and both Red Sox players I highlight weren’t expected to replace Ellsbury. Regardless, Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both centerfielders who are expected to get on base and steal bases. I’ve combined Sizemore and JBJ’s April 2014 stats and compared them with Ellsbury’s stat line from April 2013.

OBP Runs SB 2B 3B
Ellsbury (April 2013) .336 19 11 6 3
Sizemore/JBJ (April 2014) .300 15 6 6 1

Unfortunately, one Sizemore and one JBJ are not equal to one Ellsbury. Both players have been struggling, with Sizemore hitting .212 and JBJ doing worse with a .206 batting average. Even though JBJ is getting on base at an average rate, as reflected in his .324 OBP, this isn’t satisfactory. Both players combined are not getting the job done.

Not that it matters, because the meat of the Red Sox batting order isn’t hitting with runners in scoring position anyway. With Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino returning, the Red Sox have most of the lineup that they wanted for 2014 in place (minus Daniel Nava, who looked completely lost at the plate). Ryan Roberts and Jonathan Herrera aren’t whiffing every time the step to the plate anymore, so the Red Sox are out of excuses. It’s time to start hitting.

This Red Sox lineup has some serious problems right now, and the solution isn’t telling A.J. Pierzynski to swing at less pitches. The problems start with the team’s core not being able to produce, and if they don’t figure out a way to hammer pitchers like Sabathia soon, then maybe they’ll need to take pitching lessons from Mike Carp. Because they’ll all be throwing an inning or two soon.

ABC and ESPN should do a Selfie Evaluation

Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (L) poses for a "selfie" with U.S. President Barack Obama during a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House to honor the 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox April 1, 2014 in Washington, DC. The Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2013 World Series

The uproar surrounding David Ortiz‘s selfie with President Obama taps into a couple strains of idiocy running rampant today: 1) Lazy journalism; and 2) Hatred of the Red Sox. Unfortunately, the first strain feeds into the second because editors know that many Americans outside of New England hate the Red Sox, so stories that bash the franchise are promoted despite their poor quality. Who needs honesty when you have advertising revenue generating clickbait?

And honesty was sorely lacking in the ABC News piece which started the controversy, starting with headline: “Why ‘Big Papi’ Got Paid to Take Selfie With President Obama.” Such a headline accuses Ortiz of wrongdoing by not disclosing an endorsement deal wherein he was offered payment to get a selfie with the President. A journalist should have solid evidence behind this accusation before an editor agrees to publish it. So what evidence did ABC News offer? A statement from a Samsung spokesman saying that they had a “relationship” with David Ortiz – that’s not confirmation that Ortiz was paid for his selfie.

David Ortiz is a superstar professional athlete who’s highly sought after by companies looking for professional athletes to endorse their products. Along with Samsung, Ortiz currently has a “relationship” with MTV; in the past, he’s had “relationships” with Reebok, Vitaminwater, New Era Cap, Easton, plus a restaurant and line of hot sauce carrying his name. To assume that Ortiz got paid to take a selfie with the President because he has a relationship with Samsung means that all of these other companies must have paid him for the selfie too, according to the “logic” of ABC News.

Let’s extend their “logic” further. ABC is the parent company to ESPN, the supposed “Worldwide Leader in Sports.” ESPN likes sports stories about superstar athletes, especially ambiguous stories that portray a negative tone, because such stories drive up ratings and help keep billions in advertising revenue flowing in. Since ABC and ESPN have a “relationship,” it’s easy to see where ABC just helped out ESPN. Now I don’t have evidence to prove my accusations are correct, but who needs proof when you have clickbait? Evidence is just for silly people, there’s money to be made here!

Since this story is about the face of a franchise that sports fans outside of New England love to hate, there’s a lot of money to be made here. Why talk about what’s actually happening on the field when you can bash the Boston Red Sox? Bashing the Sox is always a winning topic, and the media will let anyone who bashes the Sox have a voice. How else would a washed up A-ball pitcher in the Cardinals organization receive a national platform if he didn’t accuse the Red Sox of cheating in the World Series? Why else would anyone pay attention to Dirk Hayhurst when he accused Clay Buchholz of cheating? If charges of cheating were leveled against players on teams that are less successful than the Red Sox, those stories would fizzle out. Nobody cares. But when someone accuses a Red Sox player of nefarious deeds, then unlatch the flood gates and let the idiotic hate flow.

That’s how myths are created. Why pay attention to what’s happening on the field? Nobody cares that Justin Smoak just had a career series against the Angels, and this could be his coming out year as a star, because he plays for the Mariners. That’s not ratings worthy. But spreading lies and hate? That’s always worth its weight in gold.

[Correction: I accidentally listed Justin Smoak’s team as the Marines. Although Smoak is over six feet tall, weighs in at 230 lbs of mostly muscle, and he probably could be in the Marines, he’s actually a member of Seattle Mariners.]

photo credit: getty images

How great is David Ortiz?

Brief introduction: Hey there, I’m Walter Kosumak. I’m the pen name behind the NotWallyGM parody account on Twitter, and Ian has graciously given me the keys to write about the Boston Red Sox for SOX & Dawgs.

I’ll begin my first post with a grand statement: the best Red Sox hitters ever are Ted Williams, Carl Yaztrzemski, and David Ortiz.

Does that sound odd to you? Because it makes sense to me. When Ortiz said, before spring training, that he wanted a new contract, it launched a new round of “When will this guy get old?” conversations. That’s a shame. Instead of dwelling over his age, we should be reveling in witnessing the greatness of David Ortiz every time he steps to the plate.

Before defending the place I’ve given Ortiz among other Red Sox hitters, I’ll compare Ortiz’s recent performances to what we saw of him earlier in his career to see how he’s extended his career as a potent force at the plate. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and Ortiz has been so successful with these adjustments that you could say he doesn’t age – he merely adjusts.

Here’s a broad view of Ortiz’s stats from 2003 – 2010 and 2011 – 2013:

BA OBP OPS Avg HR
2003-10 .286 .386 .958 36
2011-13 .311 .401 .972 27

We can see a couple things going on here: Ortiz’s power has decreased with age, but his abilities to make contact with the ball and get on base have increased. It’s worth noting that Ortiz’s power decrease runs concurrent with a decline in home runs throughout baseball. In 2004, 5,451 home runs were hit; but we saw only 4,934 home runs in 2012. Maybe Ortiz’s power decrease isn’t age related, but this home run decline in all of baseball has, ironically, made Ortiz more valuable as he ages since players who can hit 25-35 HR are no longer a dime a dozen.

What abilities has Ortiz developed to beat age to remain one of baseball’s elite hitter? He’s added three elements to his game: hitting to all fields, better clutch hitting, and a newfound ability to get hits off left handed pitchers. These adjustments can be observed in some of Ortiz’s stat splits from 2008 – 2013.

First, here’s Ortiz’s ability to hit to all fields display in his batting average for balls hit up the middle and to the opposite field:

Up the Middle Opposite Field
2008 .299 .268
2009 .301 .356
2010 .398 .355
2011 .369 .405
2012 .390 .438
2013 .384 .379

Many managers still opt to place a defensive shift on Ortiz. This strategy that worked against Ortiz earlier in his career, as evidenced by his .268 average for opposite field balls in 2008. But since 2009, Ortiz’s average for balls he hits to the opposite field hasn’t dipped under .350. The younger Ortiz was more of a one-dimensional power hitter, but as Ortiz has aged, he’s become a superior contact hitter who not only sprays the ball to all fields, but does this while being one of the biggest power hitting threats in MLB.

This has helped Ortiz get more clutch hits. The notion that Ortiz has become better in the clutch seems unthinkable because he’s thought of as being Mr. Walk Off Homer, but check out these stat splits for his batting average with runners on second and third, and with the bases loaded.

Second & Third Bases Loaded
2008 .100 .400
2009 .083 .353
2010 .300 .267
2011 .263 .333
2012 .250 .500
2013 .455 .455

Ortiz having a high batting average with the bases loaded is understandable because pitchers can’t pitch around him when first base isn’t open, but hitting with runners on second and third must be a batter’s toughest job – especially when that batter has the power threat that Ortiz possess. Pitchers won’t want to throw Ortiz anything close to the strike zone, yet Ortiz has figured out ways to get hits in this situation. I triple-checked his .455 average in 2013 with runners on second and third and it’s not a joke. Ortiz has adjusted to find ways to be a better clutch hitter.

And Ortiz has accomplished this while hitting against all pitchers. Ortiz has always mashed right handed pitchers while having trouble against left handed pitchers, but look at these splits for his batting average against southpaws:

vs. LHP
2008 .221
2009 .212
2010 .222
2011 .329
2012 .320
2013 .260

Judging from Ortiz’s dip to .260 off LHP in 2013, perhaps pitchers have finally started adjusting to this new facet of his game. But .260 is around 45 points better than the averages vs. LHP he put up in 2008 – 2010.

Through these adjustments, Ortiz is becoming the definition of the cliche “40 is the new 30.” This is a player who should be in the twilight of his career and regressing, not progressing. And by figuring out ways to prolong his career, Ortiz is climbing the ranks of the Red Sox record book:

  • For On-Base Percentage, of all Red Sox hitters with over 5000 ABs and 1500 games, Ortiz is third all-time with .390; behind Ted Williams (.482, best all time in MLB) and Wade Boggs (.428).
  • For On-Base Plus Slugging, of all Red Sox hitters with over 1500 games, Ortiz is second (.962) behind Williams (1.116).
  • For Home Runs, Ortiz is currently fifth with 373 in a Red Sox uniform. Jim Rice is third with 382, and Dwight Evans is fourth at 379 – so Ortiz will likely by in third by the middle of May.
  • For RBIs, Ortiz is sixth with 1191 – but he has played only 1514 games as a member of the Red Sox. Everyone ahead of Ortiz has played over 1800 games for the team.

Those are the numbers that Ortiz has put up just with the Red Sox. For his career, Ortiz has 431 home runs and 1429 RBIs, with a .287 BA and .381 OBP. If Ortiz gets up to 1600-1700 RBIs, he’s in Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas and Ernie Banks territory. And if he has those RBIs while becoming a member of the 500 HR Club, then how can he not get into Cooperstown?

How feasible is it for David Ortiz to attain 500+ HR and 1600+ RBIs before the end of his career? Pretty damn feasible. Consider this: Jason Giambi was 43 in 2013 and he still found a job in baseball. Giambi was once a left handed power threat, but he hasn’t had a season with over 450 AB since 2008.

If Giambi can find a job as a pinch hitter at 43 (and it looks like Giambi will still be in MLB at 44), then it’s not difficult to imagine David Ortiz having playing options available to him over the next few seasons if he doesn’t choose to retire. So it’s likely that Ortiz will reach 500+ HR and 1600+ RBI.

Ortiz might have 500 HR right now if the Twins realized his potential and knew how to develop him as a player before giving up and releasing him.

Everything I’ve gone through doesn’t even take Ortiz’s postseason performances into account. I think we all remember those extra inning game winning hits in games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS, as well as his career .455 BA and .576 OBP in the World Series. Ortiz has 14 World Series RBIs, too – averaging 1 RBI per World Series game he’s played in. That’s not too shabby.

Not only has Ortiz been great, but we’re still witnessing his greatness. I could have lead off this piece with where Ortiz stands all time among Red Sox hitters, but then people would say “Yeah, that’s great, but he’s getting old.” By detailing how Ortiz has adjusted along with where he ranks all time among Red Sox hitters, it becomes clear that he doesn’t just have a few years of baseball left in him, but he will be talked about for generations after he retires. Our grandparents had Ted Williams, our parents had Carl Yaztrzemski, and we have David Ortiz.

Perhaps I’m biased, but as far as I’m concerned all of this should be enough to convince even the most grumpy Red Sox fan that the club extending Ortiz’s contract is worth it. For anyone who’s still not convinced, consider that another one of MLB’s premier hitters who hits for contact and has power just signed a 10 year, $292 contract extension. David Ortiz isn’t Miguel Cabrera, but with Ortiz making a guaranteed $31 million over the next two seasons to produce at a level a couple grades below what Cabrera brings to Detroit, it can be argued that Ortiz gave the Red Sox the biggest hometown discount in the history of baseball.