While the 2010-11 baseball hot stove season may not be closed out as of yet with still some big name but older free agents out there, it’s time to take a look at the possible big fish for 2012.  That would be one, Albert Pujols currently of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pujols is on record of telling the Cardinals that he will not negotiate contract extension during the 2011 season as he just wants to concentrate on baseball.  He says if he is not signed by the start of spring training he will become a free agent at season’s end.  So in a little less than three weeks from now St. Louis fans could be preparing themselves to see Sir Albert walk away. 

Could the Cardinals really lose the best player in baseball?

It appears that St. Louis management has basically been given a drop dead date of February 18^th.  It is rumored that Pujols wants Alex Rodriguez-type dollars.  A-Rod’s last deal signed after the 2007 season was for 10 years and $275 million plus different incentives based on his milestone numbers and awards that push the potential value of the deal well past $300 million if they are all achieved.  Insiders say that while the Cardinals brass and Albert and his reps have always gotten along word is that things may not be so cozy behind closed doors and chances are slim of the Cards getting an extension beyond February 18^th.

So this leaves St. Louis with three options:

1. Sign Pujols in the next few weeks and break the bank for the Player of the Decade.
2. Look to trade him during the season before the deadline, hoping to get one good player and prospects in return.
3. Ride the season out and see if you can hang with the big boys in the free agent market.

While most baseball “experts” and talking heads will try to tell you (they’ve already started by the way) that the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies are already all set at first base and have no interest in Pujols, do not believe it.  You are not going to try to sneak the best player in the game by these three teams without them trying to at least kick the tires.

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Most people also forget that even though Pujols is a first baseman now, earlier in his career he was a jack of all trades.  When he first came to the majors in 2001 he played third base, left field, right field and DH in addition to first.  And he did this until he became the Cards everyday first baseman in 2004.  In fact in 20003 he played 113 games in left field to 62 at first base (I’m sure there were games where he played both positions at some time that’s why the numbers don’t add up).  He’s only 31, he is definitely not too old to play a corner outfield spot and get some DH time with an American League club.

With that in mind I fully expect the following to happen if Pujols gets to free agency after the 2011 season:

1. Philadelphia will look at him but after sinking all that money into the rotation, Howard, Utley and Rollins there’s no way they’ll pay Pujols $30 million a year.  I don’t think they can over extend themselves that much but they will be in on the bidding, just to drive up the final numbers.
2. New York, the Yankees not the Mets, will be in on this.  Who would you rather have Nick Swisher patrolling right field or Albert Pujols?  Do you want an aging Jorge Posada as your DH or Pujols?  Hank and Hal have already proved to have the crazy Steinbrenner gene.  They, not GM Brian Cashman, gave ARod that contract that’s killing them; they also gave the go ahead to sign Raphael Soriano when Cashman didn’t want to lose the draft pick.  They will be in the bidding long and hard especially after the Cliff Lee embarrassment.  On one side will be Hank and Hal wearing their spinning propelling beanies, sucking on giant lollipops looking to spend their inheritance on the newest shiny toy.  While Cashman sits across the table preaching patience and talking up the growing farm system.  It will once again be ugly for the Yankee family; it will once again make it to the press and this time no matter how it end’s it will send Cashman running from the Bronx.
3. Boston will bid on Pujols. Theo and the Trio much like the Phils and Yanks will not this one pass regardless of how well put they seem to be. But unlike the other two teams talks will be quiet and secret making Sox fans and Boston media want to scream for lack of news.  It’s how Theo operates.  Covertly, discreetly in the dark shadows and amongst the bodies of the teams who have failed. There are two teams out there who can pay Pujols $30 a year or more.  They are the Yankees and the Red Sox.  But the difference between them is that Boston while still being loaded is clearing a whopping $61 million off the payroll from 2011.  Gone are the big contracts of David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, Jason Varitek, Hideki Okajima and Marco Scutaro (dual option for 2012).

If the Red Sox don’t re-sign Drew and Ortiz the lineup needs a power bat in one of those spots and a right handed one to boot.  Pujols could easily be moved to right field with some occasional at bats at DH, while you find a veteran bat to be the everyday DH.  I’ve said if before, I’ll say it again even if they give Albert $30 million a year there’s still plenty of money to come off the books to allow them to get a DH, maybe re-sign Ortiz for a year or two, and add to the bullpen and strengthen their catching.

Theo and his baseball bunch are brilliant at working these things out.  I’d love to see them win over Pujols with how they do business and with the product they have on the field.  It is a reality if he gets to free agency.

In the end I feel Pujols wants to stay in St. Louis badly but if given the opportunity to see what else is out there he may get overwhelmed.  St. Louis and Boston are baseball towns, the fans love their teams.  I think Albert would see a parallel and could be persuaded to come to Boston.

If he leaves, St. Louis will not be a good place to be.

Follow Steve on Twitter @djstevem

Photo credit: AP Photo

With the truck scheduled to leave Fenway in a week and the reporting of pitchers and catchers shortly after that I figured it might be a good time to look at the Red Sox as we embark on the 2011 season.  Also, we will soon publish the Gigantic Sox & Dawgs 2011 Baseball Preview, a week long look at all the divisions in both leagues and who the big winners and losers will be in ’11.  But for now it’s just a look at our team, the Boston Red Sox.

Last season Boston finished a respectable 89-73, 7 games behind the division winning Tampa Bay Rays and 6 games out of the wild card spot.  We all remember the difficult, injury laden season the team went through.  At some point last year the Red Sox lost significant time from injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, Josh Beckett, Hideki Okajima, Clay Buchholz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. 

For those keeping score that’s your top starter, your number 4 starter, all 3 catchers, 1/2 of your starting infield, including a former MVP and a guy who was putting up MVP numbers and 2/3 of your starting outfield that also comprised the top four hitters in your lineup.  What they did last year in dealing with the injuries was border line amazing and it’s part of why the expectations for the ’11 season are so high.

After the season ended the front office had to consider the following.  Prepare for Martinez, Bill Hall and Adrian Beltre to test free agency. Decide if they were going to exercise the option on David Ortiz and replace not only the roster spot lost to the retirement of Mike Lowell but his leadership as well.  They also had to decide whether or not to bring back captain Jason Varitek for a 14th season. 

They knew they wanted Martinez and Beltre back but only really on the club’s terms and they also knew they’d exercise the option on Ortiz, giving them another year to decide what to do with the aging slugger.  They also re-signed Varitek giving them some catching depth and leadership for the staff.  But they really had to remake the bullpen which was an unmitigated disaster in 2010.

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The big losses the team suffered in the off season were just part of business.  Both Martinez and Beltre liked Boston, but when Detroit ponied up 4 years and $50 million for V-Mart there was no way the Sox were going to match the offer.  They saw Martinez as a 3 year/$36 million or 4 year/$40 million player.  And much like what happened in 2005 with Johnny Damon the Red Sox got outbid when a team decided to over pay. 

Beltre, who declined the option on his contract to go to free agency, seemed like a sure fire fit for the Los Angeles Angels.  They needed a third baseman, they needed a right handed power guy and there was Beltre for the taking but for some reason they never finalized an offer and a short while later Beltre was signed by Texas for 5 years and $80 million.

Hall was signed as a utility player last year, a guy who could play a variety of positions.  Hall did this hoping that for 2011, the year in Boston as a jack of all trades would lead to a starting job somewhere.   Hall ended up signing a one year deal with a mutual option with Houston and will be the Astros second baseman, the position Hall prefers to play.

With those moves made General Manager Theo Epstein decided it was time to stop playing around and make some noise and fill the hole on the corner of the infield.  But instead of going and finding a third baseman, he decided to move All-Star/Gold Glove first baseman Kevin Youkilis back to his original position of third base and go after the player he has coveted for a long time.  The first roll of thunder you heard from the Hub came on December 6th when the Sox traded Eric Patterson (as the PTBNL), Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes to the San Diego Padres for All-Star/Gold Glove first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. 

Gonzalez, who could have been a free agent after the 2011 season, reportedly has a contract extension ready to go with Boston rumored to be seven years and $154 million.  Gonzalez, who put up MVP-like numbers hitting in a pitchers paradise at PETCO Park should destroy the Green Monster at Fenway.  Scouts, the team and fans alike have been drooling all off season waiting to see what Gonzalez numbers will put up in hitter-friendly Fenway.

Then with Red Sox Nation glowing in the realization of the Gonzalez deal Theo struck again late on a Friday evening.  Just as New Englanders and Sox fans everywhere were preparing for a wonderful nights sleep, the Internet blew up when the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham announced to the Twitter-verse that the team signed Carl Crawford for 7 years and $142 million.  People everywhere could not sleep. I know, I for one stayed awake for hours looking for more information at first refusing to believe it was true.

With a solid starting five plus one already in place, Epstein and Company’s next move was they had to remake the bullpen.  In a matter of a few days, they re-signed Hideki Okajima, and brought into the fold Matt Albers, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Rich Hill, Lenny DiNardo and Andrew Miller to join Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Scott Atchison, Tim Wakefield, Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront.  Among these dozen or so they need to find 7, maybe 8, guys who can fill their needs and with the back end covered with Pap, Bard, Jenks and Okajima now you’re really only looking at three or four spots to fill, those should go to Wheeler, Wakefield and possibly Albers. So now you’re really down to one spot, maybe two, for a half dozen guys.  In this case more is definitely better.

The starting rotation will be the same it was out of the gate last season.  Lefty Jon Lester truly emerged as the number 1 guy in the rotation last year and in people’s minds he is the top starter but you know Josh Beckett will not give that slot up without a fight.  I expect Beckett to rebound from an awful year, regroup and look like the Beckett of 2007.  So opening day in Texas I think Beckett is the man as long as he has a solid spring.  He will be followed by Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka with Wakefield as the extra guy should an an injury or ineffectiveness occur.

I think it’s also important to mention here while talking about pitching is the fact that pitching coach John Farrell left to become the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays.  This left a huge hole in the Sox staff, but the front office and Terry Francona did a wonderful job of filling the void by bringing in former Oakland A’s pitching coach Curt Young, who was highly sought after and is highly regarded in the game.  I’m sure after spending the last several years molding Oakland’s young talented staff, Young can’t wait to see what a group of veteran’s can bring to the table.

So if things go smoothly in Spring Training here is your Opening Day Roster:

Starters (5)

Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz and Matsuzaka

Relievers (8)

Albers, Wakefield, Wheeler, Atchison, Okajima, Jenks, Bard and Papelbon

Catchers (2)

Saltalamacchia and Varitek

DH (1)

Ortiz

Infielders (5)

Gonzalez, Pedroia, Scutaro, Youkilis and Lowrie

Outfielders (5)

Crawford, Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron and McDonald

The biggest battles will be in the bullpen and for an extra bench spot that won’t see much time.  I see Darnell McDonald there just because they don’t want Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick sitting when they’d fair better playing in Pawtucket.  Also look for the promotion of SS phenom Jose Iglesias later in the year.

Looking ahead to 2012, the Sox will be free of the contracts of Drew, Ortiz, Papelbon, Cameron, Scutaro (dual option for  2012), Varitek, Wakefield and Okajima plus some of the other more minor players who signed 1 year deals or deals for 1 year with an option. Those previously named total roughly $61 million is 2011 salary.  Theoretically, in 2012 Iglesias fills the shortstop void, you sign a backup catcher, bring in Kalish and Reddick for the 4th and 5th outfielder/DH spots and go after a big right handed bat for right field/DH.  Someone young, who terrifies both lefties and righties who hits for power and average and could could play the corner outfield position. 

The guy I’m thinking of is 31 years old and averages .331 BA; 42 HR; 128 RBI; 198 Hits; 44 Doubles; 95 BB; 67 K; .426 OBP; .624 SLG; and 1.050 OPS over 10 seasons.  The numbers you just read read were put up by one Albert Pujols.  Even though most baseball “experts” don’t expect the Yankees and Sox to get involved I don’t see it that way.  When an extraordinary talent of this magnitude is available the situation needs to be explored.  I full expect Theo and the Trio to kick the tires, it’s only prudent.  He has always explored anything that will make the team better and there is no one like Pujols.

Expect the agents for Pujols to be looking for A-Rod type contract numbers.  Somewhere around 10 years and $300 million will be the starting point.  Just remember, if they give Albert the $30 million a year there is still $31 million left over from 2011 to spend in other areas.

Don’t forget seam heads, the seven-part Gigantic Sox & Dawgs 2011 Baseball Preview is on its way.  Look for it soon.

Follow Steve on Twitter @djstevem

Photo credits: Steve Silva – Boston.com, AP Photo, Elsa  – Getty Images, AP Photo