It’s easy to be negative in Boston, the town where we still reflexively react to the frustration of waiting 86 years to win a World Series despite winning in the past decade. So let me preface this post by saying that the Apocalypse is not nigh: it’s only the first week of the baseball season, Detroit still has a perfect record, Arizona is an unspeakable 1-7, the Devil Rays are in first place, and these are all examples of things that won’t last.
And the Red Sox have shown flashes of brilliance, on and off the field. Henry, Lucchino and Werner surprising David Ortiz with a World Series MVP ring was a stroke of genius because the currency Ortiz recognizes is respect. In baseball, respect is most often measured in contract dollars, so Ortiz occasionally complains that he’s not getting paid at the same level of his peers. By giving him the World Series MVP ring, Red Sox ownership usurped currency as a measure of respect and gave Ortiz the gift of ultimate respect. That ring is worth more than a $100 million contract to Ortiz, and it probably cost less than $500,000, so the gift was a shrewd business move.
So, with that said, let me revert to my normal negative Bostonian self and dwell on the bad news.
Clay Buchholz – After years of waiting for Buchholz to reach his potential and put together a season as an Cy Young contender with 200+ innings pitched, the Red Sox have resigned themselves to assuming that Buchholz will go on the DL at least once a season and made him the fifth starter. It’s a shame that Buchholz has only been able to put it together for 10-15 starts a season because, in those games, he looks everything like the Cy Young-esque pitcher we thought he would become. Getting those types of starts from the fifth starter would, at least, demonstrate the strength of the Red Sox starting rotation.
Where Buchholz is concerned, though, you always have to fear when (not if, but when) he’ll go on the DL. Under that pretense, his start against Milwaukee on April 5 was worrying because his fastball just wasn’t fast. Most of his fastballs were 88-89 mph (a couple reached 90 mph), which left little difference between his fastball and 85-86 mph change-up. And both pitches had little movement on them; they were left up in the zone and Brewers hitters hammered them.
Buchholz couldn’t throw his curveball effectively either, which usually doesn’t concern me because a curveball is tough for any pitcher to throw in cold weather (aces like Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright both had trouble snapping off curveballs last October), but since Buchholz’s other pitches weren’t working, now it could be a cause for concern; if only because he doesn’t have a third pitch to rely on when his fastball isn’t humming.
But Buchholz’s loss of velocity is my biggest concern, because it could mean he’s holding back and that’s indicative of an injury. The Red Sox have enough depth to cover for an injured starter – Brandon Workman has looked great so far – but I’ll take Buchholz at 100% over Workman; or Jon Lester, or John Lackey, or mostly any other pitcher, quite honestly. Without a healthy Buchholz, the Red Sox once strong rotation now has just another fifth starter. Even if that starter is Workman or one of the prospects in Pawtucket, it will still led to more losses than when Buchholz is pitching.
Will Middlebrooks – A day after hitting a solo home run and looking like he was getting hot at the plate, Middlebrooks was scratched from the lineup on April 5 because of a leg cramp; and wasn’t even available to pinch hit in what became an extra innings loss where the Red Sox really could have used his bat. He’s missing from the April 6 lineup as well, and reports say he’s getting an MRI on his right calf. Middlebrooks was placed on the 15 day DL about point-five seconds after I wrote that part I crossed out. Sigh.
Unlike depth at other positions, Red Sox don’t have much depth at third base until Garin Cecchini is MLB-ready. The team lucked out last year with Jose Iglesias, after Middlebrooks worked himself into a well deserved demotion to Pawtucket.
Middlebrooks hit .194 in April 2013, and just .138 in June 2013 before being sent down – and he was making a throwing error to first base every 5-6 games, it seemed. Jose Iglesias served has surprise depth the Red Sox didn’t realize that they had, and the fact that Wil Myers won the Rookie of the Year award over Iglesias was a crime. Iglesias at least should have been awarded some sort of combo Gold Glove for SS/3B or something. Not to digress, but why doesn’t a utility infielder Gold Glove exist?
Regardless, Iglesias is on the DL now, so even if the Red Sox kept him, they would still have to depend on Middlebrooks because the other options are Brock Holt and Brandon Synder. But can the Red Sox depend on Middlebrooks? He has yet to play a full MLB season, and this year is Will’s third chance to get it together and play for a season without being injured or optioned to Pawtucket. Beyond durability, the other issue with Middlebrooks is his lack of plate discipline. In the few games he’s played in 2014, he’s still swinging at those outside pitches that can produce ground outs.
If Middlebrooks puts in another season where he’s not durable or improving at the plate, the Red Sox will need to make a decision on whether to give him another shot or cut bait. In 2013, Middlebrooks forced the team to make a decision mid-season and they had Jose Iglesias to fall back on. But in 2014, if Middlebrooks again forces the Red Sox to make a decision about him, then he might be part of a trade to bring a professional third baseman to Boston. The Red Sox have given Middlebrooks more than enough chances to win the job at third base, and it should be do-or-die time for him.
A.J. Pierzynski – As a writer, it’s in my best interests if the Red Sox cut Pierzynski because I won’t need to keep Googling that mess of a surname to make sure I’m spelling it correctly…
AJP (there, that’s better) has turned in a solid career as a catcher, and he had a better season than Jarrod Saltalamachia last year. Keep in mind that 2013 was likely Salty’s career year: he had a .372 average for balls in play, but still struck out at the same rate. So Salty had a lot of good luck at the plate last year, which made up for him being horrible behind the plate: he allowed 89 stolen bases, and had the most total baserunners try to steal off of him.
AJP isn’t the best defensive catcher, but he’s still a threat to gun down baserunners and a threat at the plate, so the Red Sox choosing AJP over Salty was a no-brainer.
Unfortunately, AJP looks like he put on weight over the offseason, and he’s looked bad at the plate. He hasn’t looked great behind the plate either, but he hasn’t been horrible. Hopefully he’s just off to a slow start and this isn’t his age finally catching up to him. AJP’s slow start would be easier to swallow if he appeared to be hustling, though. Players are judged by Boston fans on how much hustle they show, and if AJP doesn’t start hitting soon, he’s going to have a really rocky relationship with the Red Sox fan base.
Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts looks like a mature veteran at the plate, and I would be surprised if he didn’t rake 200 hits this season. In fact, I’d place some money on Bogaerts eventually passing Pete Rose and becoming baseball’s all time hits leader. But his fielding is a work in process. Besides the balls that were within his range but he couldn’t field, there were balls out of his range that Stephen Drew or Jose Iglesias would have reached. Boston fans were spoiled with superior shortstop fielding in 2013, and other teams have it worse. (How’s Segura working out for Milwaukee? And who’s that 40 year geezer playing in the Bronx?) But, hopefully Bogaerts will improve in the field. If he doesn’t, then perhaps Bogaerts can be the third baseman of the future if Middlebrooks doesn’t work out.
Like I mentioned from the start, none of this negativity means it’s the end of the world. But it’s just a few things to keep in mind and worry about, if you’re the worrying type of person. If you’re cheering for the Red Sox, then I’ll just assume you’re the worrying type.
