Why It’s Never Smart To Make Long Term Predictions

 

Back on August 30^th I went out on a limb and predicted the entire NFL season. I went week by week giving wins and losses. I then assigned the 12-playoff teams and picked through the Super Bowl.

With the completion of the regular season it’s time to take a look to see how I did on the season records, standings and playoff teams. I’m gonna leave the analysis to the overall record and leave the division and conference records alone but you can see for yourself where I went right or mostly wrong.

(-#) means the team lost that many more games than I predicted.

(+#) means the team won that many more games than I predicted.

AFC East

• I predicted the division winner in New England and the cellar dweller in Miami, but my picks for 2^nd and 3^rd were flipped. I could have never have predicted the Patriots undefeated season (+3) nor did I see Miami’s (-4) flop coming. The Bills were -1 and the Jets were -5.

AFC North

• Was I off, I had the division in absolute reverse from top to bottom. I missed each team by at least 3 wins either way. This division killed me. Baltimore was -6, Cincinnati was -4, Cleveland and Pittsburgh were +3.

AFC South

• Again I had the top team and the bottom team with 2^nd and 3^rd flipped. Indy I was -1, Jacksonville was +5 better than I thought, Tennessee was +1 and Houston was +5.

AFC West

• I had the 1^st and 2^nd place teams with 3^rd and 4^th flipped. San Diego was -2, Denver was -3, KC was -6 and Oakland was +2.

NFC East

• I had no one in the right order here at all. Philadelphia was -4, Dallas was +2, Giants were +4 and Washington was +6.

NFC North

• Again the Northern Division was a total flip from top to bottom. Chicago was -5, Detroit was -2, Minnesota was +3 and Green Bay was +9.

NFC South

• The only thing I got right here was #4 Atlanta who was a push because I totally predicted their record!!! Carolina and New Orleans were -3 each and Tampa Bay was +2.

NFC West

• The only correct placing was Arizona in second and they were a push as I predicted their record!!! San Francisco was -3, Seattle was +3, St. Louis  was -3.

So in the grand schemes of records and standings I predicted two teams records and had 8 teams of 32 in their proper final place in the division standings so 25%. My furthest off base predictions were Green Bay at plus 9 and Baltimore and Kansas City at minus 6.

The playoff predictions:

In the AFC I predicted 3 division winners. New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. I had Baltimore winning the AFC North instead of Pittsburgh. I missed both Wild Card teams as I had Cincinnati and Denver while the actual teams are Tennessee and Jacksonville.

In the NFC I predicted none of the correct division winners. I had Philly, Chicago, Carolina and San Francisco where the actual winners were Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Seattle. I also missed both Wild Card teams as I had Dallas and New Orleans although my one consolation was that Dallas did make the playoffs as the NFC East winner. The actual Wild Card teams are the Giants and Washington.

So out of 12 playoff teams I predicted four if you count Dallas getting in even if it wasn’t in the spot I had them.

So what does this all prove? That it is damn near impossible to predict a NFL season. I think the things are obviously the parity for the most part. They say on any given Sunday, any team can beat another and that’s obviously true. Injuries play a huge part in it. Some of these teams started 3 quarterbacks this year and one, San Francisco, used four. The 32 teams used a total of 64 quarterbacks as starters. Then a lot of teams lost other key players as well. And I think the final large factor is how the personnel perform. Some guys like Brett Favre have an amazing year no one saw coming except maybe John Madden. Who would have thought a team could go undefeated? That four division winners and 2 wild card teams from last season would not make the playoffs including the two teams who played for the NFC championship? A lot of that is based on poor performances by people in key positions. Just goes to show you it’s all a crapshoot.