On Thursday afternoon, Keith Law of Scouts, Inc. released his annual Top 100 Minor League Prospects and on this list we find seven Boston Red Sox farmhands.
They are Casey Kelly (18th), Ryan Westmoreland (32nd), Anthony Rizzo (53nd), Lars Anderson (56th), Ryan Kalish (86th), Jose Iglesias (91st) and Junichi Tazawa (98th).
Here’s what he had to say about each one.
No. 18 – Casey Kelly (SP):
Note the absence of “SS” from his position — although Kelly was a good defensive shortstop, he was raw enough at the plate that it didn’t make sense for him to continue to hit when he’s so polished on the mound and could knock on the big league door in 2010 or 2011 as a pitcher. Kelly’s defining attribute as a pitcher is his command, which was unusually good for a high school pitcher (in Sarasota, Fla.) and hasn’t regressed at all since he got into pro ball. He has a chance for three average or better pitches, with a solid-average fastball already, a curveball that frequently flashes plus with good depth and tight rotation, and an above-average changeup with good arm speed and some fade. As you might expect from a former middle infielder, Kelly is a great athlete who fields his position well and repeats his delivery, contributing to that above-average command. He probably will add a little velocity as he goes, but his ability to locate his fastball and chance for two above-average to plus secondary pitches make him a top-flight pitching prospect even without the big fastball.
No. 32 – Ryan Westmoreland (OF):
Westmoreland was one of the top prep players available in the 2008 Rule 4 draft, but was widely considered unsignable due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt. (Imagine how much more stacked Vanderbilt’s 2011 draft class — which still features potential first-rounders Sonny Gray, Jack Armstrong and Jason Esposito — would be with Westmoreland in it.) The Red Sox signed Westmoreland for $2 million, but he had hurt the labrum in his throwing shoulder and ended up having offseason surgery between 2008 and 2009, limiting him to DH duty for most of last summer. He was still recovering from the original injury, playing left field rather than center when he picked up a glove again, only to break his collarbone slamming into the outfield wall while catching a fly ball, further holding back his development. Westmoreland is a top-10 talent with his combination of athleticism, power potential and feel for hitting, and he showed very advanced plate discipline in his limited season in Lowell last year while going a remarkable 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts. The combination of catastrophic injuries does raise the specter of Chris Snelling Disease, in which a prospect is so prone to injury that he can’t develop properly as a hitter. But with a full season in 2010, Westmoreland could largely put those concerns to rest.
No. 53 – Anthony Rizzo (1B):
Boston’s (former) top first-base prospect, Lars Anderson, struggled last year, but Rizzo is on the rise. Rizzo lost most of 2008 to his battle with limited stage classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s fully recovered now and, during his time away from baseball, transformed himself physically, making himself leaner and more athletic. In the process, he became one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors. He’s a left-handed hitter with a very easy stroke that generates line drives to all fields, although as he grows he should develop 25-30 home run power. His approach at the plate remains immature, unsurprising given the time he missed, and he has to work on getting himself into better counts where he can stay back and drive the ball. He can’t match Anderson’s offensive potential, but Rizzo’s defensive prowess and strong 2009 put him ahead of Lars on the Red Sox rankings.
No. 56 – Lars Anderson (1B):
The universal answer to the question of “What happened to Lars Anderson in 2009?” seems to be “You tell me.” Anderson came into the season as a polished hitter with patience, plate coverage and power, started slowly and finished horribly, with just one home run after June and a .201/.298/.265 line during that span. Nothing changed about his mechanics — he starts with a big move down into the hitting position, after which he takes a short path to the ball and … well, he used to drive it to all fields and show big pull power, at least in BP, but everything went awry for him in 2009, and the cause appears to be more mental than physical or mechanical. Anderson is an unusually intelligent player — he was spotted at spring training one year on a back field, by himself, reading “Lonesome Dove” — and should be able to find his way out of the morass, but sometimes the game’s challenges get too deep into a player’s head, and some players never recover.
No. 86 – Ryan Kalish (OF):
Kalish broke his wrist not long after signing with Boston in 2006, limiting his playing time in 2007 and perhaps damping down his power output even into 2008, but last year he had a mild breakout. His wrist was healthy and he had more reps under his belt, and of course physical maturation is a major factor for high school players as they approach their age 21/22 seasons. Kalish was primarily a football player growing up, and the Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He’s become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he’s not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he’s now a more polished overall hitter who’s already coming into some power and may add more.
No. 91 – Jose Iglesias (SS):
Iglesias is a premium defensive shortstop with a chance to hit, so while he probably won’t be any kind of impact bat, he’ll be worth a few wins a year with a plus glove and a bat that plays at that position. On defense, he has both quickness and instincts, with good feet, great hands and quick turns and transfers, as well as an above-average arm. He’s an aggressive hitter with a swing-first mentality, but his swing is short to the ball and should produce lots of contact, even hard contact once he gets more reps in pro ball. He’ll probably max out with grade 40 or so power on the 20-80 scale, but if he can improve the quality of his contact, he’ll be productive for the position. At worst, he might be Adam Everett, but I think he’ll end up more than an automatic out by the time he reaches the big leagues.
No. 98 – Junichi Tazawa (P):
Last year’s capsule on Tazawa began: “Tazawa isn’t quite big-league ready, but he’s fairly close and could start in Double-A and appear in the majors by year-end.” Pitching regularly in a starting rotation, Tazawa’s stuff slipped a little bit in quality, with an average fastball at 89-91 mph with a little tail but no downhill plane or sink. He showed promise with two secondary pitches — a curveball in the mid-70s with good depth and an above-average splitter around 80 mph with good bottom (although when I saw him he didn’t use this pitch as much as he should have). His arm action is long, but he repeats it well and gets good momentum headed towards the plate. He’ll have to develop above-average fastball command and mix in his splitter more often to be more than a fifth starter, but considering that 2009 was his first year in any level higher than a Japanese industrial league, he has more room for growth as a pitcher than the typical 23-year-old does.
Law also rates the Red Sox as the No. 2 overall farm system. And here is his list of the Top 10 Red Sox Prospects:
1. Casey Kelly, RHP
2. Ryan Westmoreland, CF/LF
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Lars Anderson, 1B
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Derrik Gibson, SS/2B
9. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP
10. Reymond Fuentes, OF
Keith Law’s Top 100 Minor League Prospects [ESPN Insider]
No. 1-25 (PDF) No. 26-50 (PDF) No. 51-75 (PDF) No. 76-100 (PDF)
